Where did I put that old Record Player – Seriously
I caught this article in the NZ Herald yesterday on my so-called favourite second topic: Auckland Transport. Actually two articles caught my attention and I seriously wonder if I am having a case of De-ja-vu here in regards to Auckland‘s Transport.
The two articles of notice were these ones, both from Mathew Dearnaley:
Starting with “Public transport decline threat to future funding,” this is what had to be said:
From the NZ Herald
Public transport decline threat to future funding
Auckland’s public transport patronage continues to languish.
Trip numbers over the past 12 months ended 3.3 per cent lower than for the previous year.
Patronage to August 31 amounted to 69.2 million passenger trips, down from the previous annual figure of 71.5 million, according to a report to Auckland Transport’s board yesterday.
Trains accounted for the largest proportional loss, down 7.5 per cent to 10.1 million trips, despite the added contribution of the new Manukau line.
Even so, rail is starting to show a slight recovery, after its annual patronage drop from almost 11 million trips.
It notched up just over a million trips last month, 1.7 per cent higher than in August last year, despite one fewer business day.
But much more is needed, making a promised new fares strategy all the more pressing.
The Government requires Auckland Transport to have almost doubled its annual patronage to 20 million trips by 2020 before it will accelerate its 50 per cent funding for the city’s $2.86 billion underground rail project.One encouraging statistic is an improvement in punctuality. Close to 89 per cent of trains arrived at their final destinations in August within five minutes of scheduled times, up from a 12-month average of 86.2 per cent.
…
Just a quick note; going back over the Prime Minister’s speech in regards to that 20 million figure it was also stated that if AT could show around 8% growth in rail patronage year in year out then the Government would look at starting the CRL around 2018.
To the main matter though what is seriously going on and why does this issue keep popping up.
Regular and historic readers of Talking Auckland would have read here at the blog of the ups and downs we have had with Auckland Transport. At the same time there has been copious amounts of (and not solely from the blog either): public flaying, constructive criticism, submissions, feedback, presentations to committees, lobbying and even meetings to try to offer what assistance once can give to help get our public transport systems (especially rail) back on track.
The results? Two fold:
- Success with Auckland Transport’s Strategy and Planning arm in regards to South Auckland‘s public transport system. Whether that be our proposed bus routes, the slow but steady progress with Glenora Road Station, or preparations for the Manukau South Link progress is being made there. This particular arm I quite enjoy talking to or working with that particular department when the time arises.
- The Operations arm of AT? Failure and get regularly ignored unless I do something like force a fare back down like I did last September. And it is the operations side causing the most anguish in Auckland for both public transport users and the wider ratepayers
Still from the NZ Herald piece:
Trains accounted for the largest proportional loss, down 7.5 per cent to 10.1 million trips, despite the added contribution of the new Manukau line.
Even so, rail is starting to show a slight recovery, after its annual patronage drop from almost 11 million trips.
…
Even there the recovery is at risk of stalling again.
So what to do folks because I am now seriously lost after nearly two years of trying. Anything that would get patronage realistically back up gets shunned while anything that would be a detriment to patronage happens (otherwise patronage would not have slipped as far as it has).
The City Rail Link
$3.3b by the time the project gets started and there is a risk of a further blow out – owing to history some of our civic projects. This was noted in the Herald article “Rail delays threaten big blowout.”
I am sure I have said the Rail Fallacy would occur with the City Rail Link using comparisons from other projects overseas – and I could still end up being correct despite earlier ridicule on the matter. The Rail Fallacy Commentary previously mentioned on Talking Auckland can be found here: https://voakl.net/tag/rail-fallacy/
Do I want the Rail Fallacy to occur with the City Rail Link though? HECK NO! But pragmatism and harsh reality I must also bear in mind – kind of like risk management. The Rail Fallacy acknowledgement in part was me running a crude risk management exercise across multiple levels on the CRL. At least this way I knew/know the risks and can adapt for it accordingly where required.
Put it this way, at least if (political) reality bites and The Rail Fallacy does happen I was certainly most prepared – unlike others. I would also say this was good business sense in play too.
In the end though unless Auckland Transport pulls finger I am going to struggle to see how the CRL will not start until 2020. Oh and for those like ATB who might put their faith in the EMU’s. Having flash new trains will provide some kick but not the silver bullet needed to bring the CRL forward to 2018. No amount of new rolling stock will counter: getting stuck behind the increasing amount of freight trains with out the third line fully complete, fare products not lined up properly and missing simple links such as the Manukau Rail South Link to attract more actual patronage. So again AT needs to pull finger and get the right things done – no excuses.
Final remark
Trains accounted for the largest proportional loss, down 7.5 per cent to 10.1 million trips, despite the added contribution of the new Manukau line.
Hmmm – waiting for that South Link that will feed real numbers in the Manukau Line and station… Lets try and not keep the wards of Manurewa/Papakura and Franklin waiting much longer please AT. There is a pent up demand waiting for a direct service from Pukekohe/Papakura to Manukau via the South Link and some modelling I ran estimates that 20 minute, 7 day a week services using that link would mean patronage levels rivalling our Ellersile and Glen Innes Stations. So lets try and get this built in the upcoming Christmas Block of Lines – okay – please.
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