Month: August 2014

Poll of Polls update – 31 August 2014

Anything but a fizzer?
Who and what? Read on

Occasionally Erudite Publications

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll has just been released, and there’s some interesting results there.

National drop 2%, down to 48%. That’s on top of the 2% they dropped in the mid-August Colmar Brunton poll.

On the left, Labour increased 2% to 28%, while the Greens went up 1% to 12%. That’s a 5% narrowing of the gap by a Labour/Greens alliance. Given the continued floundering by National in the wake of Dirty Politics, and the confident performance by David Cunliffe in the first televised leaders’ debate (which wasn’t covered by the polling window), Labour might be in line for a continued lift in subsequent polling.

For the minor parties, NZ First is up 1% to 6%, providing a clear buffer above the 5% threshold. And there’s a good results for the Conservatives, up 0.8% to 3.2%, although it’s still nowhere near the threshold.

Internet Mana slumps badly, down…

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Enemies without and enemies within

Read the last paragraph. Dog eat dog and an empire coming to its violent end after the first implosion during the Len Brown saga…

Occasionally Erudite Publications

Yesterday, when the news of Judith Collins’ resignation broke, I asked where the Cameron Slater email had come from. It hadn’t been released by Whaledump, and it hadn’t featured in Dirty Politics. Instead, it had been sent to the Prime Minister’s office.

John Key clarified yesterday that the email was not sent anonymously. Instead, the email came from a person who was known to the PM’s office, but the identity of that person was not going to be released.

Well, we don’t know just whose hands the incriminating email passed through on its way through the Beehive to John Key and his staff, but according to the Sunday Star-Times this morning, the source of the email was Cathy Odgers aka Cactus Kate, Cameron Slater’s partner in crime:

Knowing Fairfax was investigating the hacked emails, it is believed Odgers (known by the blog name Cactus Kate) went through her own emails…

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Cameron Slater – lies, or the art of puffery?

Follow Jono and his blog. Insightful and to the point.

Occasionally Erudite Publications

Cameron Slater’s email to Carrick Graham, Mark possibly-Hochin and one mystery identity may have sunk Judith Collins’ political career, but Slater is standing steadfastly by her. Reading a pre-prepared statement yesterday, and taking a few media questions, he denied that Collins had done what the email said she’d done.

So was he lying in the email? Apparently not. According to Slater, he was exaggerating the truth:

“Embellished is a good word. It’s better than a lie, isn’t it?”

It’s worth looking at precisely what Slater wrote about Judith Collins’ involvement in the conspiracy to undermine then-SFO director Adam Feeley:

“I also spoke at length with the Minister responsible today (Judith Collins). She is gunning for Feeley. Any information that we can provide her on his background is appreciated. I have outlined for her a coming blog post about the massive staff turnover and she has added that to the review of…

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Four Southern Initiative Projects

I am putting together some Southern Initiative posts reflecting on some good news finally for this project after four years of flak including of me.

Four projects are under way covering different aspects of The Southern Initiative, those projects cover:
1) Social Infrastructure (enabling communities to participate in the Digital World)
2) Land Use Planning x2: The Otara-Papatoetoe Area Plan which is working through the motions before implementation next year, and the Spatial Priorities project the Auckland Development Committee will be working through. Manukau City Centre is one of those bigger Spatial Priorities that would be carried out
3) Physical Infrastructure from both NZTA and Auckland Transport

I will run these along side the Auckland Commute series that I have been running as I prepare to tie this all up.

More next week but good to see the Southern Initiative finally getting underway and some positive news

Serious questions for Jared Savage & the NZ Herald

Well that whacks the Herald around a bit. But also shines the light of a few things quietly suspected as well

Occasionally Erudite Publications

So, further to the Cameron Slater email that felled Judith Collins, there’s a particular line in the email that’s rather troubling:

I am maintaining daily communications with Jared Savage at the Herald and he is passing information directly to me that the Herald can’t run and so are feeding me to run on the blog.

Perhaps Jared Savage might like to explain what precisely he as a journalist was doing feeding information to Cameron Slater that Savage couldn’t publish himself. If the NZ Herald can’t use certain information in a story, it’s presumably because they’re worried about the legal consequences. So why would a reputable journalist then pass that information on to a blogger to use?

Let’s look at the Len Brown sex scandal story. It wasn’t something any mainstream media outlet was going to touch. Until it was all over the Whaleoil site, which meant that it was now…

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Judith Collins resigns

Resigned as Minister but not as Papakura Electorate MP. I live in Papakura but Judith lost my vote a while ago.

Occasionally Erudite Publications

Oravida and the mysterious Chinese border control official, the Simon Pleasants leak, Bronwyn Pullar’s Privacy Commission complaint, plotting to roll John Key after the election – the allegations just kept coming.

Now there’s the allegation that she conspired with Cameron Slater and others to discredit former Serious Fraud Office director Adam Feeley. This while she was Minister of Justice – the Minister in charge of the SFO.

She’s resigned as a Minister, and John Key has accepted that resignation. As with the Oravida saga, she believes that she’s the victim here (the vast left wing smear campaign continues…), and she’s resigning to focus on clearing her name. She’ll be staying on as MP for Papakura though, although John Key, in his press conference at the Beehive, made it clear that she could not expect a Ministerial role if National is re-elected (not at least until her name is cleared).

A 2011 email from Slater to Carrick…

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Auckland Trasnport Replies to the EMU Situation

Auckland Transport have replied directly to my Local Government Official Information and Meetings Act request to the Electric Train Fleet groundinng in July.

Auckland Transport Communications Manager Wally Thomas has said (in regards to the saga):

After 12 weeks of revenue services, disruption first occurred late in the afternoon of July 21 when the EMU shut down after detecting high voltages on the overhead line. As has been widely reported AT temporarily suspended services after several similar events. Onehunga line services return on July 31 however despite rigorous testing to try and replicate the fault, the core issue has yet to be fully identified and diagnosed. In the event of over voltage the EMUs are designed to shutdown to prevent any damage to drive components – in this respect the train performed as designed. The traction system has two feeder substations at Westfield and Penrose. When the initial events were recorded on July 21 and 22 the power supply was switched from Westfield (which was the feed substation for the 12 weeks of successful running previously) to Penrose. The problem however continued. This is a complex issue and not unusual internationally for a rollout of this sort. The issues continue to be worked on by a specialist technical working group comprising AT, KiwiRail, CAF and Transdev, with Transpower also in attendance as and when required. We are also seeking international input and review.


So Auckland Transport are pulling all the stops out to find the original fault and fix it. AT, KiwiRail, Transdev, Transpower and CAF have sought international help as well.

The good thing is the safety systems have kicked in the with the overvoltage! The bad news is trying to get down to the nuts and bolts of the fault in the first place. I have asked Auckland Transport to keep me up to date. They have said yes (to which I send my thanks) and I will be in contact with them next Friday to see where things are going.

The other bit of good news is that the EMU’s are working well on the Manukau Line and performing to expectations. Next step is to test the Manukau Line with the double consist 6 car set which can carry 750 passengers in the Morning and Evening peaks. For starters they would carry more than the SA 6 car diesels which normally carry 650. So fingers crosses and looking forward to the next step. Oh and of course the EMUs on the Southern Line where they will get a good testing.

My thanks to Auckland Transport for their reply on the EMU grounding issue. Much appreciated 🙂

Blog Update

Updates Irregular, also will be away


With me settling into my role as full-time stay at home dad with our 14 week old daughter, Talking Blog posts will be a bit scatty as I settle in to the domestic dad role and establish new routines. I still have a few posts and series in the pipeline that will trickle out over the next month so there is definitely no shortage of material.

I will also be away from Friday until next Tuesday joining up with the rest of the wider family for a reunion in Tauranga. Blog posts will be limited however, if Auckland Transport does send through the rest of the Local Government Official Information and Meetings Act requests in the duration I will do my best to get them up when possible.


Also thanks for your messages of support and encouragement yesterday after I filed my Resigned from The Party post yesterday. Needless to say it is refreshing to step back from Central Politics while it is in the state it is in. However, my involvement for Local Politics remains.

So again my thanks to you all.


Fairfax Ipsos poll late August 2014

Interesting swings occuring


Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.5%

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (-4.3%)
  • Labour 26.1% (+3.6%)
  • Green 11.8% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 2.2% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 2.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 3
  • NZ First…
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 52/123 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

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