Some Surprises – Seriously

 

Auckland Council released today the Mayoral Result breakdown by both Wards and Local Boards. The results as are below:

Mayoral Vote Breakdown by Ward

 

Key Findings

• Len Brown “won” nine of the fourteen Wards
• Palino was strongest on the North Shore and in Rodney
• Len Brown was the strong in South Auckland (not including Franklin), Howick, Waitemata and Gulf and Albert-Eden-Roskill. Actually apart from Franklin Len Brown trounced Palino in the Wards he (Len) did win
• Surprise Ward of the election was Howick who backed Len over Palino by 40%
• Interesting Wards of the Election are both Maungakiekie-Tamaki and Orakei Wards
  • Manugakiekie-Tamaki Ward elected Centre Right Candidate Denise Krum but voted for Len over Palino by a 2:1 margin
  • Orakei Ward which declared a supposedly high voter turn managed to put a 2,359 vote difference between Palino and Brown or 24%

There are a few other interesting aspects such as Albany Ward and North Shore Ward (which was very close) when it comes down to the Ward breakdown

 

Mayoral Vote Breakdown by Local Boards

 

Key Findings

• Len Brown “won” 22 out of 32 Local Board (includes Sub Divisions) or rather 16 of the 21 Local Boards with two of the three Franklin Local Board subdivisions going towards Len Brown
• Howick had all three Local Board subdivisions in favour of Len with the Botany area the true surprise (a margin of about 2:1 in favour of Brown over Palino)
• Again South Auckland area and West Auckland area carried Len Brown back into Power. In saying that Albert/Eden/Roskill, Maungakiekie-Tamaki and Waitemata were also very strong backers of Len Brown

 

Concluding results?

• Rather strong majority by Ward and Local Board were in favour of Len Brown as Mayor compared to John Palino
• North Shore Ward was quite close the two Local Boards split between backing Palino or Brown
• Owing to the surprise in Howick Ward I would gather a well-funded and long-term campaign could tip out the incumbents (Dick Quax and Sharon Stewart) and install a more Centre-Left Social Liberal into their seats
• Despite what Councillor Cameron Brewer thinks Mayor Len Brown on the voter turn out carries a strong mandate with 16/21 Local Boards and 9/14 Wards in favour of the incumbent. I would also say stand a strong true Liberal challenger in Orakei who is YIMBY and progressive (but still Centre Right) and Cameron might find himself in trouble
• All oppositional Wards and Local Boards where Len Brown did secure the majority of the vote (Howick and the bulk of the Isthmus) must note that the people might have put an oppositional Councillor in (if applicable) but they also backed the Mayor and his policies. Take note – and also makes an interesting situation as well 😛
• If the Centre Right want to win the mayorship then they must convince looking at these results: South Auckland, Howick, Waitakere and even the Isthmus. Some challenge laid down there for particular candidate who might try

 

If it was not for that other particular matter I would have hat tipped John Palino as looking at the raw numbers he actually did a fine job getting the number of votes he did owing to circumstances such as first timer and not an incumbent Councillor. However due to a particular few playing silly buggers that hat tip will never occur.