Missing Cities?

Time to talk Housing Typology

 

The M-Central multi-role Tower nearing completion  Tower to hold apartments, food court, retail and maybe some office space
The M-Central multi-role Tower nearing completion
Tower to hold apartments, food court, retail and maybe some office space

 

The New Zealand Initiative released a thought-provoking presser, and subsequent commentary piece in the NBR about our housing situation (that being a hot button issue right now).

The NZI saying:

New Zealand’s ‘missing cities’

                                                         

22 August 2014 New Zealand’s ‘missing cities’

New Zealand faces a chronic housing shortage the size of three major cities within 20 years, according to a new report from the New Zealand Initiative.

The report claims claims the country could reach a shortage of 113,800 houses by 2031 and official figures underestimate the scale of the crisis.

New Zealand Initiative Executive Director Dr Oliver Hartwich says current construction levels are much lower than officially forecast, with serious implications for the housing market.

“The crisis is far more urgent than we think.  If we don’t build at least 113,800 additional houses within 20 years, we could see Auckland house prices match or even exceed Sydney levels within that time.

“This is the greatest crisis facing New Zealand and unless we ramp up supply well beyond current levels, home ownership could be out of reach of most families within 20 years,” Dr Hartwich says.

The Initiative’s figures are based on official projections for demographic change and population growth, and current construction levels.  They show New Zealand’s aging population is set to create a generational housing mismatch of ‘empty nests’ and ‘crowded houses’.

“You’ll see more and more houses with one occupant while next door you’ll see larger numbers of people crowded together,” Dr Hartwich says.

Dr Hartwich cites the German city of Cologne, which experienced similar demographic shifts between 2001-2009 as official median projections indicate for New Zealand.

“Despite their population growing by only 1,400 over that time, almost 20,000 new houses were needed to cope with the mismatch resulting from their aging population.  It was a hugely valuable lesson and New Zealand need to take notice.

“The solution is simple.  We need to build more and we need to build now,” Dr Hartwich says.

The report recommends creating development districts to finance construction, giving local government greater financial incentives, and reforming water provision as three steps toward addressing the shortage.

Copies of the report, Empty Nests, Crowded Houses are available from the New Zealand Initiative.  For more information and contact details visit http://www.nzinitiative.org.nz

 

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Source: http://nzinitiative.org.nz/Media/Media+releases/New+Zealands+missing+cities.html#.U_rAdVECDtg.twitter

 

Eric Crampton also had this to say on our housing situation

Source: http://nzinitiative.org.nz/site/nzinitiative/NBR_EC_22aug2014.jpg
Source: http://nzinitiative.org.nz/site/nzinitiative/NBR_EC_22aug2014.jpg click for full resolution

 

As expected we have a few issues ranging from: NIMBY’s, planning regulations, land supply, development controls, economics and government policies.

Going to be a while before we get this problem sorted as we need to step change ourselves through this rather than lurch one way and lurch further back again as knee jerk reaction.