I have warned previously about National scoring a negative 2% swing against it on Election Day for it to go back to the Opposition Benches. Looking at the poll of polls (amongst other things) National is teetering on the brink of going back.
As Natusch has said:
The big news is that National loses a seat to NZ First. National has dropped 0.5% in a few days, and almost 2% in just over two weeks. It was inevitable that they’d drop during the campaign, but the drop has suddenly accelerated, which should worry National.Big worry slipping 2% that fast and the Whaledump saga still ongoing.
If National can not arrest that slippage soon polls have a nasty tendency to become self fulfilling prophesies especially if it galvanises voters and increases turnout above 75%.
We are at T-Minus 17 days until E Day. And 3 months ago National were all but assured victory. Now? Some MP’s could be tasting opposition for the very first time
We’ve had two polls out today, the latest Roy Morgan poll and the 3News Reid Research poll.
In the Roy Morgan poll, there’s a slump for National, down 3% to 45%. Despite National’s fall, there’s no good news for the Labour Party, who drop 1.5% to 26%. Instead, the news is overwhelmingly good for the Greens, who rise a huge 4.5% to 16%, their best Roy Morgan result in over two years.
For the remaining minor parties, NZ First may be down 0.5%, but they’re still on 6%, which would see them returned to Parliament. The Conservatives climb 2.5% to 3.5% (their highest ever Roy Morgan result), while ACT is up 0.5% to 1%. There’s bad news for the Maori Party (who drop from 1% to 0.5%), United Future (who don’t even register, having dropped 0.5%), Internet Mana (who drop 1% to 1.5%).
In the Reid Research poll, National…
View original post 513 more words
Talking Southern Auckland 