An interesting thought and paradigm for the Conservatives.
My inclination says they won’t make it and their vote might tip as high as 4.8%. In our MMP system without an electorate seat that means no Conservatives in the next Parliament and 4.8% of the vote wasted that might have gone to National or split even to NZ First.
If the Conservatives do make it in I wonder if they would be a stabiliser or destabiliser to a Centre Right Government. Or should we allow the Conservatives over the 5% and test them on the Cross Benches…..
Hmmmmm
Back when John Key confirmed there would be no East Coast Bays deal for Colin Craig, I happily wrote off the Conservative Party. With no hope of winning an electorate seat, they had no choice but to make 5% of the vote, which was one hell of a long shot.
However, if I cast my eye around the internet, I’ve apparently been far too early to write them off. In the NZ Herald this morning, there’s John Roughan talking up the Conservatives in his opinion piece “Craig’s day in the sun may dawn“. The latest Herald Digipoll says National voters would prefer a coalition with the Conservatives, rather than NZ First. And over at the Dim-Post, Danyl McLauchlan publishes his bias-adjusted tracking poll and predicts “The Conservatives will probably cross the 5% threshold.”
Personally, I stand by my prediction that the Conservatives won’t make it. One poll…
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Talking Southern Auckland 