Month: September 2014

Poll of Polls update – 17 September 2014

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I will be putting the Polls of the Polls over the last few days on the election campaign.

Yep at the moment it is about Winston – WINSTON

jononatusch's avatarOccasionally Erudite Publications

Two new polls out today – this afternoon’s Roy Morgan, and this evening’s 3News Reid Research poll.

In the Roy Morgan poll, National rise to 46.5% (up 1.5%), while Labour slumps 2% to 24%, and the Greens drop an even larger 2.5% to 13.5%.

It’s a great poll result for NZ First, who rise to 8.0% (up 2%). It’s their second best result from any major polling company this year, beaten only by the 8.1% they achieved in the latest Herald Digipoll.

For the remaining minor parties, the Maori Party hits 1.5% (up 1%), United Future rises from zero to 0.5%, ACT loses half of their support, dropping from 1% to 0.5%, and there’s no change for Internet Mana and the Conservatives, on 1.0% and 3.5% respectively.

The 3News Reid Research poll, meanwhile, is a very different beast. National achieve their worst result this year from any major pollster, hitting…

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3 News Reid Research poll mid September 2014

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Had a few people ask already so here is the latest 3 News Poll
Of note they did overstate National by 3% last election so who knows if that would translate out again

dpf's avatarcuriablog

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 09 to 15 September 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-2.2%)
  • Labour 25.6% (-0.5%)
  • Green 14.4% (+1.4%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 7.1% (+1.2%)
  • Conservative 4.9% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 33
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/124 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 +…

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