Auckland to hit two million by 2033

 

Statistics NZ yesterday releases information on population growth (or decline) projects through to 2043.

They say:

Sub National Population Projections 2013

Subnational Population Projections: 2013(base)–2043

All 16 regional council areas are projected to increase in population between now and 2028, Statistics New Zealand said today.

“The short-term trend partly reflects the current high level of arrivals into New Zealand, and the current low-level of departures,” population statistics manager Vina Cullum said.

“However, population growth will slow in the longer term as our population continues to age. This will see the number of deaths increase relative to births. Also, net migration (arrivals minus departures) exceeded 50,000 in 2014 and is unlikely to remain at that level.”

Auckland will continue to be New Zealand’s fastest growing region, and account for three-fifths of the country’s population growth between 2013 and 2043. From an estimated population of 1.5 million in 2014, Auckland is projected to reach 2 million in the early 2030s. That means out of every 100 people in New Zealand, 34 currently live in Auckland, but this will increase to 37 in 2028 and 40 in 2043.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to account for three-fifths of Auckland’s growth, and net migration the remaining two-fifths.

Of New Zealand’s 67 territorial authority areas, 51 are projected to have more people in 2028 than in 2013. However, only 30 are projected to have more people in 2043 than in 2028.

The fastest population growth between 2013 and 2043 is expected in Selwyn and Queenstown-Lakes districts, up an average of 2.2 and 1.8 percent a year, respectively.

The projections are not predictions, but an indication of the size and composition of the future population. Statistics NZ produces low, medium, and high growth projections for every local area every 2–3 years to assist planning by communities, local councils, and government.

—–ends——

Recapping

• 60% of all growth is to occur in Auckland
• Of that growth in Auckland 60% will be through natural births keeping the fertility rate at 2.1. The replacement rate is 2.1 at the moment.
• 75% of all people to live in the North Island with still 85% to live above Taupo
• Fastest growing areas by Auckland Local Board Areas are:
  • Rodney
  • Waitemata
  • Franklin
  • Upper Harbour
• Auckland hitting two million is now put back one year to 2033 after the Auckland Plan had it at 2032

 

More figures and commentary from Statistics NZ

 

It seems Auckland is going to curb back from high population growth that was used to set up the Auckland Plan down to medium population growth. This means when the Auckland Plan undergoes a substantive review this year (remind me to tell a story on that one later) both the growth projects and where main growth is projected to occur need to be looked at.

In short the Auckland Plan is badly out of align with how the City is naturally evolving and if the four fastest growth areas are anything to go by a serious look is going to be needed.

 

Oh as for that story I alluded to above?

Actually I did tell it here: NEW SENIOR STAFF TO ASSIST AUCKLAND PLAN IMPLEMENTATION

So when that Auckland Plan Review does kick off I better see something substantive in plain English from that review to the Councillors and the public. None of this glossy paper stuff with fluff language or planning acronyms, just a solid evaluation clearly spelling out the facts on:

• where things are going well,
• where things are not going so well,
• what is working
• what needs an overhaul to bring the Auckland Plan back into line with its natural evolutionary course.