Tag: Auckland Council

Dodgy Poll

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Not all what to seems

 

[Please note I am not taking aim at Digi-Poll in any shape or form and I do respect their credibility as a polling company highly. I do however, take aim at the NZ Herald for their “reporting” and not laying out the fall statistical facts about the poll clearly in their article]

 

I did notice the Herald Digi-Poll out this morning citing a poll about Mayor Len Brown. You can read the article here: Thumbs down for Len Brown – poll

What the online piece did not show was the actual graphs which can be seen below from Twitter earlier today:

The Herald Digi-poll subsequently brought a stinging rebuke from Stats Chat which said:

Beyond the margin of error

Now, the Herald-Digipoll is supposed to be a real survey, with samples that are more or less representative after weighting. There isn’t a margin of error reported, but the standard maximum margin of error would be  a little over 6%.

There are two aspects of the data that make it not look representative. Thr first is that only 31.3%, or 37% of those claiming to have voted, said they voted for Len Brown last time. He got 47.8% of the vote. That discrepancy is a bit larger than you’d expect just from bad luck; it’s the sort of thing you’d expect to see about 1 or 2 times in 1000 by chance.

More impressively, 85% of respondents claimed to have voted. Only 36% of those eligible in Auckland actually voted.

,.,,,

So, how could the poll be so badly wrong? It’s unlikely to just be due to bad sampling — you could do better with a random poll of half a dozen people. There’s got to be a fairly significant contribution from people whose recall of the 2013 election is not entirely accurate, or to put it more bluntly, some of the respondents were telling porkies.  Unfortunately, that makes it hard to tell if results for any of the other questions bear even the slightest relationship to the truth.

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You can read the full Stats Chat piece here: http://www.statschat.org.nz/2014/03/20/beyond-the-margin-of-error/

 

The bits in bold is what gives suspicion the poll was slanted to produce a “story” that was not truly there. Then again check this:

Thumbs down for Len Brown – poll

By Bernard Orsman 5:30 AM Thursday Mar 20, 2014

The journalist running the story is not known to be “objective” from time to time and has been pulled up before for either slanting or giving a misrepresentation (that is his opinion rather than a claimed fact).

So I would be very careful in trotting out this poll which has misrepresentations and a bad case of slanting as proof of fact against the Mayor. Using such a poll in that method will not do your credibility any good – although two of the oppositional five Councillors had (although expected).

 

Back to City Building we go as there is nothing to see from that Orsman piece.

 

Lessons from Lusi

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How Resilient are YOU recovering from a Natural Disaster

 

Thinking of Lusi who was a bit of bluster for Auckland and not much use for the Waikato (in the terms of rain needed to break the drought) the question you ask yourself is? “How resilient would you be if Auckland was struck by a natural disaster.” The honest answer for most of Auckland should be (if they are being brutally honest) ‘not at all.’

 

From Auckland Council

Resilient Auckland Expo opens on 21 March

 

The Resilient Auckland Expo 2014 is on this Friday and Saturday (21 and 22 March 2014) at the Aotea Centre.

The free Expo will give property owners, developers, engineers and businesses a chance to learn from New Zealand’s leading engineering companies and institutions how to better prepare for and recover from natural disasters.

Auckland Council’s Director of Civil Defence and Emergency Management Clive Manley says the Expo is a great opportunity for people to get up to speed with the latest technology solutions.

“Earthquake preparedness is a dynamic area of technological development and I would encourage anyone with an interest to come along.”

Participants include:-

  • Leading engineering consultancies, including Impact Group and Opus, with details of their work around providing New Zealand building owners and developers with the tools to ensure their property’s resilience
  • Hawkins Construction, one of New Zealand’s leading contracting engineers and a major player in the reconstruction of Christchurch
  • Specialist suppliers of concrete, masonry and reinforcement products that can assist the challenge of managing our pre-1976 building stock
  • Extensive displays from leading scientific research institutions GNS Science, the University of Auckland and University of Canterbury (including information on research and courses).

 

The Expo is on this Friday 21 and Saturday 22 March at the Aotea Centre and is open from 8am to 6pm both days. Entry is free.

For more information, visit the expo website: http://confer.co.nz/resilientauckland/

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So again: How resilient are you for coping and recovering from a natural disaster?

 

Cyclone Lusi – The Latest

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Heightened Risks Tonight for Auckland

 

From Civil Defence and Auckland Council:

Warning to stay away from beaches as weather conditions deteriorate in Auckland

 

The Auckland Emergency Coordination Centre continues to monitor adverse weather conditions across Auckland. Auckland Police are investigating a report of an 11 year-old boy possibly missing off Takapuna beach near the boat ramp.

Auckland Council Civil Defence controller Clive Manley says weather conditions are still expected to deteriorate into this evening. 

The Auckland east low tide occurred at 1.32pm. Tides are now rising and swells are forecast to become very large during the afternoon.

A seven metre swell was recorded at Marsden Point this afternoon.

Clive Manley says the main concern is the potential for coastal erosion on north-eastern beaches between 4pm and 10pm.

“People need to be very careful, especially later this afternoon and into the evening on or near east coast beaches in Rodney and the North Shore. It is best to keep away from beaches.”

The areas likely to be affected are:

  • At high risk of coastal erosion (ie properties that are very close to the beach may be affected): Snells Beach, Waiwera, Orewa, Milford, Cheltenham and Whangateau.
  • At moderate risk of coastal erosion: Stanmore Bay, Big Manly, Long Bay, Waiake, Browns Bay, Murrays/Mairangi Bay, Campbells Bay, Castor Bay, Milford Beach, Takapuna Beach, Narrow Neck, Omaha, Hatfields Beach, Algies Bay and Claris.

 

Throughout the region, there have been localised power outages, surface flooding, landslips and trees down. Around 7000 people have been affected by power outages.

The Fire Service has responded to approximately 100 incidents in the northern region. Most were in Northland but calls are now coming in from the Mahurangi and Rodney areas.

The Auckland Harbourmaster has advised that three boats had to be secured after they broke moorings today.  Fullers Devonport ferry is now operating after disruption due to sea conditions.  Due to conditions in the harbour, a ship has been redirected to shelter off the Coromandel Peninsula.

The maximum recorded wind gusts have been at Channel Island (122 km/h) and Whangaparaoa Peninsula 113km/h.

Rainfall totals as of 1430 hours  are; Northern Auckland 50mm, Waitakere Ranges 41mm, Hunua Ranges 25mm, South Auckland 25mm .

The Emergency Coordination Centre continues to monitor the region and will provide additional updates as necessary.

 

People are advised to be prepared and keep up to date with severe weather warnings and forecasts from MetService.

To keep up to date with outages, download Vector’s Outage Manager App from iTunes or Google Play. Go to http://www.vector.co.nz/outages.

Follow Auckland Civil Defence and Emergency Management on Facebook and Twitter @AucklandCDEM.

You can also follow updates from Auckland Council on Facebook and Twitter @aklcouncil.

If you have a smartphone, please download the Auckland Civil Defence App to receive instant updates. Go to www.aucklandcivildefence.org.nz/Alerting/Get-the-Applications.

 

Visit www.getthru.govt.nz for detailed information on what to do, before, during and after a storm.

 

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Currently in Papakura it’s all bluster with no rain and the odd patch of blue sky as we go into sun down.