Scrapping over funding bores me while the Unitary Plan sparks more interest (no I am not dissing the rescue helicopter service either but I don’t believe in over-cooking the story either) and is not being covered well.
So today I will be Tweeting Live from the Budget Committee at 1:30pm from Town Hall on the proceedings. My Twitter handle is @BenRoss_AKL and full report will be posted in the morning.
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I did notice the Herald Digi-Poll out this morning citing a poll about Mayor Len Brown. You can read the article here: Thumbs down for Len Brown – poll
What the online piece did not show was the actual graphs which can be seen below from Twitter earlier today:
The Herald Digi-poll subsequently brought a stinging rebuke from Stats Chat which said:
Beyond the margin of error
Now, the Herald-Digipoll is supposed to be a real survey, with samples that are more or less representative after weighting. There isn’t a margin of error reported, but the standard maximum margin of error would be a little over 6%.
There are two aspects of the data that make it not look representative. Thr first is that only 31.3%, or 37% of those claiming to have voted, said they voted for Len Brown last time. He got 47.8% of the vote. That discrepancy is a bit larger than you’d expect just from bad luck; it’s the sort of thing you’d expect to see about 1 or 2 times in 1000 by chance.
More impressively, 85% of respondents claimed to have voted. Only 36% of those eligible in Auckland actually voted.
,.,,,
So, how could the poll be so badly wrong? It’s unlikely to just be due to bad sampling — you could do better with a random poll of half a dozen people. There’s got to be a fairly significant contribution from people whose recall of the 2013 election is not entirely accurate, or to put it more bluntly, some of the respondents were telling porkies. Unfortunately, that makes it hard to tell if results for any of the other questions bear even the slightest relationship to the truth.
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You can read the full Stats Chat piece here: http://www.statschat.org.nz/2014/03/20/beyond-the-margin-of-error/
The bits in bold is what gives suspicion the poll was slanted to produce a “story” that was not truly there. Then again check this:
By Bernard Orsman 5:30 AM Thursday Mar 20, 2014
The journalist running the story is not known to be “objective” from time to time and has been pulled up before for either slanting or giving a misrepresentation (that is his opinion rather than a claimed fact).
So I would be very careful in trotting out this poll which has misrepresentations and a bad case of slanting as proof of fact against the Mayor. Using such a poll in that method will not do your credibility any good – although two of the oppositional five Councillors had (although expected).
Back to City Building we go as there is nothing to see from that Orsman piece.
Thinking of Lusi who was a bit of bluster for Auckland and not much use for the Waikato (in the terms of rain needed to break the drought) the question you ask yourself is? “How resilient would you be if Auckland was struck by a natural disaster.” The honest answer for most of Auckland should be (if they are being brutally honest) ‘not at all.’
From Auckland Council
The Resilient Auckland Expo 2014 is on this Friday and Saturday (21 and 22 March 2014) at the Aotea Centre.
The free Expo will give property owners, developers, engineers and businesses a chance to learn from New Zealand’s leading engineering companies and institutions how to better prepare for and recover from natural disasters.
Auckland Council’s Director of Civil Defence and Emergency Management Clive Manley says the Expo is a great opportunity for people to get up to speed with the latest technology solutions.
“Earthquake preparedness is a dynamic area of technological development and I would encourage anyone with an interest to come along.”
Participants include:-
The Expo is on this Friday 21 and Saturday 22 March at the Aotea Centre and is open from 8am to 6pm both days. Entry is free.
For more information, visit the expo website: http://confer.co.nz/resilientauckland/
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So again: How resilient are you for coping and recovering from a natural disaster?
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Talking Southern Auckland 