Month: October 2013

Night Closures on Rail Line to be Extended

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Southern, Eastern and Manukau Lines to be Closed from 8:30pm 7-Days a week

 

I had received some feedback in regards to the Auckland Electrification Project – specifically around delays and setbacks. I sent some questions to Auckland Transport who have replied this morning in regards to the Electrification roll out (the infrastructure not the EMU trains).

 

While I will need to follow-up with Kiwi Rail in regards to Electrification completion on the Eastern Line (from Westfield Junction to Britomart), Newmarket to Britomart and Britomart Station itself I do have confirmation of extended closures on the rail line south of Otahuhu Station starting this coming Friday.

 

As Southern Auckland rail commuters are aware, from May 27 this year the rail line between Otahuhu and Papakura (including the Manukau Line and Station) would close at 8:30pm – Sunday to Thursday. That means the 8:10pm Britomart to Papakura va Newmarket service is the last full service through to Papakura. After 8:30pm your train will go as far on the Eastern, Southern and Manukau Lines to Otahuhu where you will need to transfer to a Rail Bus to finish your journey. The closure is to allow continued work on the Electrification project in the area.

 

However this “ramp down” as we call it in the rail transport trade is now to occur seven days a week until the Christmas-New Year Close Down Auckland is use too for the last several years. That means: the 8:10pm Britomart to Papakura va Newmarket service is the last full service through to Papakura. After 8:30pm your train will go as far on the Eastern, Southern and Manukau Lines to Otahuhu where you will need to transfer to a Rail Bus to finish your journey – SEVEN DAYS A WEEK starting this week.

 

Please direct your enquiries on the “ramp down” of services to Auckland Transport please – not Talking Auckland

 

 

So again 

From this coming Friday 11th October 2013 until the Christmas/New Close Down, from 8:30pm – seven days a week (unless otherwise stated by Auckland Transport such as a Special Event); Southern, Eastern and Manukau Line Trains will only run between Britomart and Otahuhu. To go further south (or to come north  from south of Otahuhu) you will need to complete/start your journey on a rail bus. Western and Onehunga Line not affected by this ramp down.

 

 

Statistics Minister Interfering with Elections?

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Interfering with Auckland‘s Local Government Elections from the Minister of Statistics

 

 

As soon as the preliminary Census Data findings were released yesterday did Statistics Minister (who would oversee the Census) drop a rant about Auckland’s population growth and use it as a tool to bash the City Rail Link and Unitary Plan.

You can see the Minister’s rant in part here:

Census calls rail loop into question

By Isaac Davison @Isaac_Davison 5:30 AM Tuesday Oct 8, 2013

Reduced growth figures suggest revision of Auckland’s infrastructure plans needed, claims Statistics Minister.

Statistics Minister Maurice Williamson says new Census data which show that New Zealand population growth has halved since the last Census could prompt revision of Auckland’s infrastructure plans such as an increase in high-rise apartments and the construction of a city rail loop.

But Auckland Council is standing by its plans for growth, saying that Auckland is expected to grow faster than the rest of the country.

The council’s planning for the next 30 years is based on the prediction that the number of residents will grow by 1 million.

Mr Williamson said the first Census data in seven years indicated that this projection was far too high.

Statistics New Zealand figures released yesterday showed that on Census night, there were 214,101 more people in New Zealand than at the previous Census in 2006. This meant the population had grown by 31,000 a year over the past seven years, compared to 58,000 a year in the previous period of 2001 to 2006.

“This is a huge surprise – bigger than Ben Hur,” Mr Williamson said. “It’s nearly half the growth rate that everyone had been basing their historic numbers on.

…

 

Already debunked all that twice now and not really willing to do it a third time.

 

What I will post however is two “replies” to the Minister stepping into an area that he should clearly not:

From the Deputy Mayor and Chair of the Auckland Plan Committee (that oversees the Unitary Plan) Penny Hulse:

  • Rule number one: Ministers of Statistics are not meant to use statistics for political purposes.

  • Rule number two: Ministers should use the correct information. Williamson doesn’t realise that the figures used for the Unitary plan are based on Stats NZ forward projections. These figures will not be available until next year. The census data as presented is not directly relevant to the plan. It is prudent to plan for growth and as all the experts are saying, we have so far exceeded growth projection since 1991. If growth slows, so does development, no problem….we still need to plan a city around good transport and affordable housing choices.

 

From an Activist and Commentator:

It could be possibly understand that Maurice Williamson has annoyed several of his colleagues by using his position as Statistics Minister to wade into the mayoral debate to help John Palino, and take a swing at Len Brown.

Williamson has effectively questioned the viability of the Government’s agreement with the Council over the City Rail Link, which the Government wanted (the issue) taken off the table (Unless it wants to give the Centre-Left free ammunition for continuous free hits that should not need to have happened). Even more annoyingly for the Government, Williamson’s clumsy decision to take a swing at Brown using dodgy figures.

As Williamson knows, immigration flows are cyclical. In the last three years, New Zealand has had low migration because we have been at the bottom of the migration cycle. All the current projections are that migration is picking up again, quickly, as happens in any cycle. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9071532/Migration-boom-could-defeat-home-loan-restrictions

It is dishonest of Williamson to suggest that long-term, New Zealand migration flows, and therefore Auckland population levels, will remain at constant lows. Williamson might be regretting that he bottled his opportunity to go after the Mayoralty himself when he had the chance, but he needs to remember that he’s a Government Minister, part of a Government that has to work with New Zealand’s largest city, and not Palino’s campaign sponsor.

 

I have relayed those points as I agree with them. Williamson is interfering as a Minister of the Crown in Auckland’s Local Elections with his rather dim-witted rant. Already Auckland’s voting turnout is at (as of now) 22.42% compared to 33.8% in 2010 we don’t need a Minister’s rant and incorrect information putting people off – we already have enough of that from aspects of the media and some candidates. Speaking of which I see the Main Stream Media are quoting Williamson without fact-checking – typical…

 

Furthermore Williamson’s rant can put a chill on consumer and business confidence if we see mucking around and interference. While iPredict does show Len on a 96.9% chance of winning mayor for a second term thus Williamson’s rant as possibly as much of a side issue as berms/verges, again we do not need any more crap being thrown around giving further risk to chilling voters, consumers and businesses.

 

Let me, the people, voters and businesses decide in Auckland decide what they want with their elected representatives for Auckland. Not some Minister who should have been put out to pasture a long time ago…

 

Related articles

Debunking a Census Myth

· 1 Comment ·

Just Wait Folks

With Statistics New Zealand announcing some preliminary news around Census 2013 – National Population Growth, I have noticed the usual dissenters already cropping up.

Here are two examples:

From Twitter:

Maurice Williamson (a member of the current Government) says unitary plan wrong as NZ population growing slower. Has he done the stats on people leaving provinces to go to AKL?

And from Facebook:

The first census figures are out and here’s what the statistics boss had to say…
“This means that, on average, the population has grown by about 31,000 people per year since the last census in 2006. This was slower growth than between 2001 and 2006, when the population grew by an average of about 58,000 per year,” Government Statistician Liz MacPherson said.
So much for Len’s vision to cater for 1,000,000 more people.
At this rate of growth there will be an increase in population by 2040 of less than 900,000 for the whole of New Zealand – so Auckland might attract about 60% of the total, about 540,000 – just over half of the Auckland Plan figure, Time for some Auckland planners to depart the scene. This is justification for my early call to hold Unitary Plan until census results available.

(Note; David Thorton’s Facebook post was made in “public” mode where everyone can see it. Talking Auckland does not copy over Facebook posts that are not in “public” mode without prior permission of the user in question)

One minor detail folks:

11 Mar 2014  NZ.Stat:  Population Detailed tables that can be modified to contain only the variables the user requires, including geographic breakdowns to territorial authority area and often area unit level. This module has information such as age, sex, internal migration, marital status, and number of children born.

Source: http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/about-2013-census/release-schedule.aspx

Yes October 15 we can find out Auckland’s actual population for the 2013 Census date and compare it to 2006 Census data. But the internal migration data of who is coming to Auckland from where-else in NZ in comparison to external migration and natural birth is something I would be keeping an eye on.

If the statistics show a strong trend towards Auckland then we will need to maintain the High Population Growth projections for the time being.

 

Furthermore the Unitary Plan is reviewed every 10 years once it is operative.

That means the Council at the time can review the population projects and alter the Unitary Plan as required. It means we can scale up or down the urban development as required from those review periods.

Much more prudent than holding off on the Unitary Plan – which would have greatly annoyed the Central Government highly. And much more prudent  as it is easier to scale back from high projects with our planning then having to ramp up because we fell behind from the starting point. Example in ten years time in regards to the Southern Rural Boundary; if growth and migration into Auckland is high then more land within the RUB will need to be released with the possibility the RUB being extended. If the opposite occurs then the land release within the RUB can be slowed down with the possibility of the RUB being contracted. So for now lay the RUB down as it is as a middle road option so we have something to work with – then take it from there through the reviews.

March 2014 – when we can get a good look at what Auckland will be in for. For now let’s get the foundations laid while we can then take it from there.

Six month wait – ah well…

 

Note from Admin: More to hand as this was posted

Who Really Wrote This – Seriously?

 

Heaven’s sake I just wrote this post on debunking the Census Myth and Mayoral candidate Palino and is Deputy Mayoral aspirant Brewer go full force in purporting that myth as seen here: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK1310/S00301/census-figures-demolish-len-browns-plans-for-auckland.htm

 

Where to start or not? Quite simply no point as everything I have said above debunks what those two are saying  I have written posts in the past that also debunk the myths made out above.

 

What is more interesting is that I have just picked up this in regards to housing from Stuff:

Govt to make ‘significant’ housing announcement

The Government is set to make a “significant” housing announcement this week as Finance Minister Bill English warns that the Government is “serious” about reining in a rampant property market.

Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9253286/Govt-to-make-significant-housing-announcement

…

 

So let me see:

  • Mayor and Government with Auckland’s Transport: in concordance
  • Mayor and Government on the Unitary Plan and the resulting Housing Accord: In concordance
  • Mayor and Government recognising Auckland is up for some large growth hence the Special Housing Areas as a start to get on to top of housing: In concordance
  • Mayor and Government recognising mass investment needed in Auckland: Well they both know that but different priorities
  • Everything Palino is trying to pull off – not in concordance with Government or we would have the Prime Minister said so by now if he was that opposed to transport and the Unitary Plan in Auckland

 

So I think (apart from Brown needing to sharpen up that finances pencil a bit) we are in Okay/Positive mode all things considered at the moment. For Auckland to have a major swing in regards to who is mayor and the make up of Council could upset both the Central Government and investment/growth opportunities here.

I leave you with the initial findings from Statistics New Zealand in regards to our population growth. It makes for some interesting reading with Auckland to pick up a new electorate seat and some pretty strong growth in parts of Auckland.

Source: Statistics NZ – http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/census_counts/NumberofElectoratesandElectoralPopulations_HOTP2013Census

 

Final Remarks: I am having some very interesting statistics and Geography discussions about the Census data at the moment. Interesting insights

 

 

 

To 2016 and also Future of Auckland relative to New Zealand

· 2 Comments ·

Focus to the 2016 Local Elections

 

The Local Elections for 2013 are nearly over with voter turnout to be the worst in living memory. We will be teeth gnashing over this for months to come on reasons why the turnout was so crap.

Along with my Geography of Tourism paper I am writing on Te Papa North – Manukau, I might also write one up on these elections as well for Auckland. I have had some interesting conversations with people over these elections and the conclusions whether they be Left or Right were generally the same.

Just as a test on Political Marketing 101 here I am going to copy over two election campaign “blurbs.” See what you think and if inclined leave a comment below. Oh comment on the style rather than personal attacks on the person please…

From Len Brown and John Palino

From NZ Herald

Election heads for low vote count

By Bernard Orsman @BernardOrsman

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Len Brown

Much has been achieved since the establishment of the Auckland Council, but there is more work to do. We’ve brought our region together and are tackling the big challenges facing Auckland.

We’re seeing progress on the infrastructure needed to unclog the roads. Average rate increases have reduced from 5.7 per cent under the old councils down to 2.9 per cent, and I’ve pledged to reduce them to 2.5 per cent next year.

If I have the honour of being re-elected mayor, my priorities will be:

Fixing Auckland’s transport, with a focus on starting the city rail link, better bus services, school transport plans and upgrading local roads

Keeping rates low and delivering efficiencies across council budgets

Increasing the housing supply with more affordable housing, so families have a place to call home

Supporting economic development and more jobs for Aucklanders

Protecting our beautiful environment and cleaning up our harbours

Investing in the pools, parks, libraries and town centres that make our communities special

I’m proud of this city, its spirit and the diverse people and cultures that make us unique.

John Palino

I’m going to put the “local” back into local government. That means more power and responsibility for you, your community and local boards on one hand, and on the other means I’ll be able to focus on keeping rates down, controlling our region’s exploding debt and providing the best possible regional services for you, your family and your business.

I’ve committed to keeping rates at the level of CPI inflation (currently 0.7 per cent) or below that every year that I am mayor.

I’m going to strengthen local boards so that decisions are made closer to residents, removing the need for bureaucracy, and improve transparency of council processes so you can monitor progress.

For new growth to Auckland I will concentrate in priority areas where there is both public support and public transport.

The most significant such area will become a second CBD in Manukau, because that’s where the strongest growth is, where the biggest need remains for jobs and where there is existing infrastructure.

I’m going to target congestion by making it easier to take public transport, not more unpleasant to drive. I will greatly expand park-and-ride facilities and, with growth focused on transport-equipped priority areas, will reduce future traffic increases.

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I will make my own musings on this later

 

 

Focus though now will be turning to the 2016 Local Government Elections. Any one with a sense of intelligence will realise that if you want to run for Council, Mayor or Local Board in 2016 your campaign starts now. Actually it started 18 months ago for Mayor.

 

It takes time to build rapport with your potential voters and get use to the issues of a Council. See for example if I were to run for a Council seat in 2016 my campaign would have started 18 months ago and continue until the day before election day 2016.

You start quietly by getting involved with your community and finding out how Council works. By getting to know your community you get to know the issues as they are often long-“lingering” ones. By finding out how Council works you can learn how to not make a total muppet of yourself in the formal stage of the campaign by “promising” things that can’t actually be done (Local Board candidates wanting to revoke the Unitary Plan being one). To find out how Council works it means taking time to rock up to Town Hall and sitting in through some often long and very boring Committee Meetings. My particular two were Transport and the Auckland Plan Committees (and those weren’t actually boring, Strategy and Finance always was 😛 ).

But I learnt a wealth of information at those meetings, struck up networks with Councillors, Officers, Media Officials and other members of the public. That networking and often a sense of curiosity on my part would allow me to be invited to the media table at Committee meetings and media briefings on things like Finances and the Unitary Plan. A privilege I am honoured to have and one I return thanks back often.

Local Boards you will need to familiarise yourself with too and what they get up to. They are an integral part of the Council in making sure your community is being looked after. Local Boards are also often the first port of call if you have a problem you would like to take up with Council. Admittedly I short-circuited my Local Board and would either go straight to the main Council or to Auckland Transport if a transport issue. More lately though I have been keeping a more close eye on my Local Board with some heavy issues coming up (The Rural Urban Boundary, Manukau and Glenora Road Station). So don’t forget the Local Boards too.

And from that if I were hypothetically run for Office the skills and tools learnt from interaction mentioned above I could use in a campaign.

 

Media and Social Media presence is a bug bear by candidates to me. You never see most candidates until right weeks before the elections where they suddenly pop up – often like a weed over the summer, then after the election you will never hear from them for three more years.

Your campaign for 2016 starts now if not 18 months ago. This means from GO you need a media if not social media presence. There are all sorts of ways this can be done and various good campaign managers will brief you on that. Again if I were to run hypothetically I have my blog to call back on. Talking Auckland is linked to Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Google+ and via email. This means I can run a social media presence that has been picked up by Main Stream Media outlets, Council itself, other Social Media Commentators and other individuals out there.

It also means that by 2016 I would have built up over five years roughly a presence that can be capitalised on. Candidates need to do this and be in for the long game if they want both a good voter turn out and a measure of respect as well. A good pre-built presence also means you can swat away daft MSM coverage like berms and focus on the actual stuff should it happen…

There are many other things that can be done as well to build up a good profile for an election if you are chasing office. While I am not running for office I am sharing the above points as I use them when fleshing out candidate choices – especially if I do not like the incumbent. I also believe in good voter turn out and respect back to the voters. Doing the above will earn that respect and achieve a good outcome, do the opposite as we are seeing mostly at the moment and you wonder why the turn out is crap as it is.

 

So your campaign for 2016 has already started – it actually on real thoughts started 18 months ago. If you have not started then start now. Wait three years and forget it you wont be getting my vote.

 

Something to remember