Latest #UnitaryPlan Feasibility Modelling Shows Enough Residential Capacity. Distribution Unequal

Enough capacity through beyond life of Plans however, distribution is unequal


The latest ACDC15 (Version 3.7) modelling is out showing the levels of feasibility for residential dwelling building capacity through (Greenfield and Brownfield) Auckland. The latest evidence filed yesterday by Auckland Council shows that we have enough capacity in the residential and business zones through and beyond the life of the Auckland Plan (2012-2042) on both medium and high population growth projections.

However, the distribution across Auckland is skewered as the below pictures show when it comes to sub-regions:


As you can see the South again takes the brunt with 30% of total feasible residential development while the Isthmus only gets to 23%. If you break this down even further the distribution within the South is pretty even while the Isthmus is concentrated in the City Centre and Onehunga-Tamaki area. This factors in BEFORE the Governing Body of Council made an attempt to withdraw out-of-scope evidence to the Unitary Plan Hearings but in which Judge Kirkpatrick of the Hearings Panel over ruled (basically the out-of-scope remains in to the Hearings) .


As for zone types this is how the distribution went:

Unitary Plan residential capacity by zone type ACDC v3.7 Source: Auckland Council
Unitary Plan residential capacity by zone type ACDC v3.7
Source: Auckland Council


The Centres seem to really lag on their potential to take increased intensification especially the Metropolitan Centres. If you look at the Metro figures at a nominal value each Metro Centre would take 1,470 dwellings or three to five large 18 storey apartment towers depending out layouts. Given the Metropolitan Centres are meant to be the second densest form of development behind the City Centre that is a rather pitiful figure.

To make matters worse when you see the maps (bottom of the post) only Takapuna and New Lynn Metropolitan Centres were anywhere close to having good feasibility ratings leaving the other eight in the lurch. Council really needs to figure out how to get ALL TEN Metropolitan Centres firing on all cylinders and really get them stepping up to take more of the intensification load if we want to cut down on longer distance commuting (and attract more amenity through agglomeration by population mass like the City Centre). Furthermore if we through Council and Panuku Development Auckland are to expend resources on transforming Manukau City Centre we might want to get the viability meters into the red (a good thing).


It now comes down to the Panel on how they want to distribute the dwelling capacity across Auckland. No doubt the mismatch between the South and Isthmus will catch their attention and subsequent reaction in dealing with it (if at all).


In the meantime I am due to give my evidence on the rezoning matters in early April.


Council Feasibility Evidence v3.7


Development and Development Spatial Distribution Economics