The ACDC15 Modelling and The Case for the Manukau Super Metropolitan Centre #BetterAuckland

As I thought with the zones

 

Auckland Council has released their ACDC15 (Auckland Council Development Capacity) modelling Excel sheet to the (Unitary Plan) Independent Hearings Panel website for downloading, viewing and actual playing around with. Playing around being you can see how much more feasible a residential development might be if you changed the zone from Mixed Housing Suburban to Mixed Housing Urban.

This ACDC15 Excel sheet is excellent to test out your Rezoning evidence before you front up to the Panel. I will use the modelling later on to test upzoning the Mixed Housing Suburban Zone in Manukau (the residential area south of the Manukau City Centre) to Mixed Housing Urban ,and Terraced Housing and Apartment Zone as seen below:

Manukau Unitary Plan ammended res zones evidence 2
Manukau Unitary Plan ammended res zones evidence 2

 

 

However, what I wanted to test out was moving the Manukau Metropolitan Centre Zone to the full fledged City Centre zone to see what would happen.

This is what happened:

Manukau Metropolitan Centre Zone to City Centre Zone. Source of Excel data: Auckland Council
Manukau Metropolitan Centre Zone to City Centre Zone.
Source of Excel data: Auckland Council

 

As I suspected feasibility for residential dwellings increased from 19% (Manukau is actually at 12% as the Sales Location Group is at LOW but for equal nominal argument I set the measurements to Regional) to 24%.

 

As for amount of dwellings, prices and dwelling size this is what the modelling came back with:

Manukau Unitary Plan Super Metro 2 Source: Auckland Council for the Excel Data
Manukau Unitary Plan Super Metro 2
Source: Auckland Council for the Excel Data

 

Smaller sized but more dwellings with sales prices about 7% higher is the result on moving Manukau from a Metropolitan Centre Zone to a full City Centre Zone. 

Now if I was to input the data for a Super Metropolitan Centre Zone (so halfway between the Metropolitan Centre and City Centre figures)  and run it through at nominal value the movements seen above with also be about half way between the Metro and City Centre Zones.

 

Nominal? Nominal as there are many other factors such as Overlays and Precincts that could make the base zone more restrictive or liberal than the zone itself. A flight path overlay will cap off height while an Additional Height Control will lift height limits are two examples.

 

None-the-less when the maps came back on feasibility of developing residential in the Metropolitan Centre Zones only Takapuna was deemed feasible. I initially concluded that the Objectives and Polices as well as the controls such as the 18 storey height limit would be primary reason why the other Metropolitan Centres might be deemed non feasible. A high concentration of Council owning land in Manukau would also be a limiting factor. But given Panuku Development Auckland is about to kick off Transform work in Manukau the Unitary Plan controls over Manukau would come back into the spotlight as a developer looks at any potential Manukau might have. That is if a developer was to partner up with Panuku and develop in Manukau would the Metropolitan Centre Zone be a restriction or an enabler. Looking at the above ACDC15 high level modelling the Metro Zone would be more of a hindrance than the Super Metropolitan Centre and/or City Centre zones.

And given Auckland Transport has stated it wants no more than 80% of commuters in the South going no further north than Manukau and the Airport then getting the most out of Manukau City Centre is an absolute priority.

 

Potential Projects Source: Auckland Transport and NZ Government
Potential Projects
Source: Auckland Transport and NZ Government

 

So is upzoning Manukau City Centre deemed viable? The ACFC15 modelling Council so relies on would say: YES!

 

Manukau Unitary Plan 081 Super Metro Zone
Manukau Unitary Plan 081 Super Metro Zone

 

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