South and West Elect The Mayor (Again). Also Voting Dynamics (Especially Southern Auckland)

Unsurprising results


Thanks to Jeremy for putting together some graphics on how the mayoral voting split fell into place in the recent elections.

As somewhat expected the South and the West would be the dominate forces bring in Mayor Phil Goff. However, one should not discount the Isthmus nor Howick either given both areas contain affluent residents but in the end the majority voted Goff (that said Howick voted for Len Brown in 2010 and 2013 as well).

The respective enclaves of Orakei and Kaipatiki standout for Kaipatiki going red would have been the major factor in progressive Councillor Richard Hills winning out over (the somewhat inept) Auckland Future team in the North Shore Ward.


Victoria Crone was noted for campaigning a lot in the North Shore and somewhat the Auckland Isthmus much to the warnings given to her that it is the South and West that will send Mayors in. The result was what expected from such a campaign with Crone taking the North and Orakei while missing out everywhere else. A note to the Right next time to head the South and West warnings given when narrowed down even further the Manukau Ward and more specifically the Otara-Papatoetoe Local Board areas have sent in both Mayors for the Super City to date. On current trajectories Manukau will be sending in its third Mayor within the next nine years depending in a former Deputy Mayor and the aspirations of current Councillors.


The mayoral split:


Chloe took out the liberal inner Isthmus and West Auckland with some decent pockets in the North and the rest of the Isthmus. However, Chloe did very poorly in Southern Auckland despite the South’s high you voting population that might have been attracted to Chloe’s policies. John Palino and Mark Thomas (both conservatives) did well in the deep South of Southern and I wonder (despite Palino being based in Takanini) if that was based on “anti-establishment” feelings in the deep South. Anti-establishment feelings that would lead to former Councillor Calum Penrose being replaced by Daniel Newman and the Papakura Local Board going into an even split between moderates and conservatives.


The voting turning out data by mesh-block area will be an interesting one to look at to see which areas within a Local Board area had an increase or decrease in voter turnout.


Again thanks to Jeremy for the assembling of the graphics.


Auckland Mayor Phil Goff
Auckland Mayor Phil Goff