Category: General

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Debunking a Census Myth

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Just Wait Folks

With Statistics New Zealand announcing some preliminary news around Census 2013 – National Population Growth, I have noticed the usual dissenters already cropping up.

Here are two examples:

From Twitter:

Maurice Williamson (a member of the current Government) says unitary plan wrong as NZ population growing slower. Has he done the stats on people leaving provinces to go to AKL?

And from Facebook:

The first census figures are out and here’s what the statistics boss had to say…
“This means that, on average, the population has grown by about 31,000 people per year since the last census in 2006. This was slower growth than between 2001 and 2006, when the population grew by an average of about 58,000 per year,” Government Statistician Liz MacPherson said.
So much for Len’s vision to cater for 1,000,000 more people.
At this rate of growth there will be an increase in population by 2040 of less than 900,000 for the whole of New Zealand – so Auckland might attract about 60% of the total, about 540,000 – just over half of the Auckland Plan figure, Time for some Auckland planners to depart the scene. This is justification for my early call to hold Unitary Plan until census results available.

(Note; David Thorton’s Facebook post was made in “public” mode where everyone can see it. Talking Auckland does not copy over Facebook posts that are not in “public” mode without prior permission of the user in question)

One minor detail folks:

11 Mar 2014  NZ.Stat:  Population Detailed tables that can be modified to contain only the variables the user requires, including geographic breakdowns to territorial authority area and often area unit level. This module has information such as age, sex, internal migration, marital status, and number of children born.

Source: http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/about-2013-census/release-schedule.aspx

Yes October 15 we can find out Auckland’s actual population for the 2013 Census date and compare it to 2006 Census data. But the internal migration data of who is coming to Auckland from where-else in NZ in comparison to external migration and natural birth is something I would be keeping an eye on.

If the statistics show a strong trend towards Auckland then we will need to maintain the High Population Growth projections for the time being.

 

Furthermore the Unitary Plan is reviewed every 10 years once it is operative.

That means the Council at the time can review the population projects and alter the Unitary Plan as required. It means we can scale up or down the urban development as required from those review periods.

Much more prudent than holding off on the Unitary Plan – which would have greatly annoyed the Central Government highly. And much more prudent  as it is easier to scale back from high projects with our planning then having to ramp up because we fell behind from the starting point. Example in ten years time in regards to the Southern Rural Boundary; if growth and migration into Auckland is high then more land within the RUB will need to be released with the possibility the RUB being extended. If the opposite occurs then the land release within the RUB can be slowed down with the possibility of the RUB being contracted. So for now lay the RUB down as it is as a middle road option so we have something to work with – then take it from there through the reviews.

March 2014 – when we can get a good look at what Auckland will be in for. For now let’s get the foundations laid while we can then take it from there.

Six month wait – ah well…

 

Note from Admin: More to hand as this was posted

Who Really Wrote This – Seriously?

 

Heaven’s sake I just wrote this post on debunking the Census Myth and Mayoral candidate Palino and is Deputy Mayoral aspirant Brewer go full force in purporting that myth as seen here: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK1310/S00301/census-figures-demolish-len-browns-plans-for-auckland.htm

 

Where to start or not? Quite simply no point as everything I have said above debunks what those two are saying  I have written posts in the past that also debunk the myths made out above.

 

What is more interesting is that I have just picked up this in regards to housing from Stuff:

Govt to make ‘significant’ housing announcement

The Government is set to make a “significant” housing announcement this week as Finance Minister Bill English warns that the Government is “serious” about reining in a rampant property market.

Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9253286/Govt-to-make-significant-housing-announcement

…

 

So let me see:

  • Mayor and Government with Auckland’s Transport: in concordance
  • Mayor and Government on the Unitary Plan and the resulting Housing Accord: In concordance
  • Mayor and Government recognising Auckland is up for some large growth hence the Special Housing Areas as a start to get on to top of housing: In concordance
  • Mayor and Government recognising mass investment needed in Auckland: Well they both know that but different priorities
  • Everything Palino is trying to pull off – not in concordance with Government or we would have the Prime Minister said so by now if he was that opposed to transport and the Unitary Plan in Auckland

 

So I think (apart from Brown needing to sharpen up that finances pencil a bit) we are in Okay/Positive mode all things considered at the moment. For Auckland to have a major swing in regards to who is mayor and the make up of Council could upset both the Central Government and investment/growth opportunities here.

I leave you with the initial findings from Statistics New Zealand in regards to our population growth. It makes for some interesting reading with Auckland to pick up a new electorate seat and some pretty strong growth in parts of Auckland.

Source: Statistics NZ – http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/census_counts/NumberofElectoratesandElectoralPopulations_HOTP2013Census

 

Final Remarks: I am having some very interesting statistics and Geography discussions about the Census data at the moment. Interesting insights

 

 

 

Things That Really Matter

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Why Your Vote is Extremely Important

 

I open with this:

Things that matter:
Both Bernard Orsman and I (amongst others) were at the Unitary Plan briefing last week on what to expect with the Unitary Plan at notification stage and The Auckland Design Manual.

What do we see:
Bernard Orsman: Berms as the leading issue affecting a very select few on the isthmus of Auckland and absolutely nothing on the Unitary Plan that affects EVERY SINGLE AUCKLANDER and wider New Zealand

Ben Ross via Talking Auckland: Unitary Plan as the leading issue affecting EVERY SINGLE AUCKLANDER and wider New Zealand

Just to put a further emphasis there that Orsman has missed entirely is that in the 2014-2016 term of Council we see the Area Plans come up and into fruition. Area Plans are derived from the Unitary Plan and set urban and social planning for a localised area in Auckland. 21 Local Boards = Countless Area Plans – Area Plans that like the Unitary Plan affect a lot more Aucklanders than berms

So where do your priorities sit? Berms or Unitary/Area Plans?
I know where mine sit

 

I mentioned Area Plans, something of a major exercise that will be undertaken in the 2014-2016 Council Term.

As I said above:  Area Plans are derived from the Unitary Plan and set urban and social planning for a localised area in Auckland.  21 Local Boards = Countless Area Plans – Area Plans.

That is because Area Plans are doing through the 21 Local Boards alongside the Councillors and the Planners. Already I believe one Area Plan has been done with the Mangere/Otahuhu Local Board so 20 more to go by 2016.

Yet this absolutely critical aspect has been forgotten about in this election cycle but many (but not all) candidates vying for our vote!

 

THIS IS EXTREMELY UNACCEPTABLE IN MY EYES!

 

The Mayor will be looking at committing every single resource available for these Area Plans yet people like Orsman rather go focus on trivial issues like berms…

Without Area Plans as an election issue how do voter heck know what voters are voting for if the candidates are not quizzed on it in the election period?

 

So voters; ask the candidates what they will do for your community when the Area Plan process gets under way. I bet most candidates will have no clue – let alone a clue on what an Area Plan is.

 

I know what I am looking for in the respective Papakura and Manukau Area Plans and I voted for council and local board candidates who I know who could do a good job come next year when the AP process begins. Do and have you?

 

Your choice: Candidates focusing on the trivial like berms or candidates who think of both the long game and focus on things that affect you and your community for life – like Area Plans.

 

One last quip on real verse trivial issues – this one on transport:

Here is another one:
Bernard Orsman: Lets Focus on Berms

Real Issue: Orsman’s bus is usually late or does not show up at all when he wants to get to work or go home from work. Auckland Transport seem to ignore this day in day out.

What is the real issue here folks?

Papakura – The Place to Be – For First Home Buyers

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Bugger There Go My Rates – Upwards

I noticed a Facebook status from Councillor Cathy Casey this morning which caught my surprise. The status message being: “Looking for a house under $400,000? Head to Papakura.”

I am like going – okay and oh bugger.

From the NZ Herald today

Survey reveals where all the cheap houses are

By Alanah Eriksen @AlanahEriksen 5:30 AM Saturday Sep 28, 2013

House-hunters looking for a home under $400,000 should steer clear of the North Shore, where only 7 per cent of properties sold last month fell into that price range, and instead look at Papakura.

Real Estate Institute figures compiled for the Herald reveal how many homes were in that first-home buyer bracket in the regions of New Zealand’s main centres.

…

 

As of Tuesday, buyers hoping to qualify for KiwiSaver‘s first-home subsidy cannot buy homes for more than $485,000 in Auckland, $400,000 in Christchurch city and Selwyn district, and $425,000 in Wellington city.

…

 

Papakura is the place to look for first-home buyers, with 60 per cent of its on-the-market homes priced under $400,000.

The realestate.co.nz website, which lists homes for sale with all the major real estate companies, shows 221 listings in Papakura priced at less than $400,000.

Real estate agent Ken Kallil, of the LJ Hooker Papakura branch, said he had seen a huge influx of first home buyers searching in the area over the past year.

 

“If people are going to come to Auckland, spend $1 million on a three-bedroom villa with no section at all in Ponsonby, well for the same amount you could come down here and buy somewhere in Papakura, Wattle Downs sort of area, a five-bedroom brick [home] on a good-sized section.”

 

He said in off-peak traffic, it took only 20 minutes to drive from his office into the city.

Real Estate Institute chief executive Helen O’Sullivan said: “I think the data indicates that there are properties available in the under $400,000 category if buyers are able to be flexible as to location and property type.

…

You can read the full article over at the Herald site

 

Why oh why though they need to advertise that fact about Papakura? 😛 As Mr Kallil of LJ Hooker said there had been an influx of first home buyers looking in the area. That will drive the value of the properties around here up but also my rates bill as well… :p Ah well suppose it had to happen some time.

Rates grief aside though Papakura is one of Auckland’s hidden gems that while rough around the edges, a bit of spit and polish and the area is pretty good. Papakura is where I reside with Rebekka in our first home that we got for $282,000. It got us a do-up 3 bedroom ex army house on a 510m2 section in a good area of Papakura. While the garden looks like a wild-field of weeds from the winter (which also makes good chicken food as we have chickens) the house is looking good as we continue the renovations.

These are some of the things Papakura has going for it as an attractive place to live:

  • 23 minutes off-peak by car from the Takanini Interchange to the CBD
  • 53 minutes from Papakura to Britomart by train – soon to be reduced to 40-45mins with the new electrics coming
  • 7 minutes to Manukau by car (need the Manukau Rail South Link to make the 13 minute rail journey viable)
  • Recreational Facilities including: Bruce Pulman Park, Papakura Netball Centre, and McLennan Park
  • Manukau Harbour on back doorstep to the west, rural living on the back door step to the eat
  • 15 minutes from the airport
  • Brand new Takanini Village and the ever-expanding Addison residential development
  • Rosehill College

 

There are things which need to be done to Papakura to spruce it up a bit more such as: upgrading the Papakura Town Centre and building the Glenora Road Station in Addison. But, for the most part we are happy here and have no intention in moving from the area soon.

For those looking for work away from the CBD (thus the commute) there are several employment hubs both commercial and industrial nearby (with more being built or proposed). Our primary hub – the Manukau City Centre is a decent place to go shopping, scream your lungs out at Rainbows End, soon visit the Te Papa North facility or even expand your education with AUT and MIT in the area.

So those who do not fall for the Champaign tastes on beer budget syndrome there is quite a bit to choose from in Papakura. Granted some houses need a bit of work but hey its your own home 😀

And nuts there goes the rates bill as we become the next “in” area.

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