Category: Transport Planning

Looking at Transport Planning and Design

10-26% Rail Utilisation?

·

Ummm – Bit Short Are We Not

 

After returning from the Papakura Unitary Plan feedback session this morning which was highly informative as I went one on two with Council Officers. I even learnt that Browns Bay on the North Shore who think they are in for 6-8 storey buildings are only in for four storey buildings looking at The Clunker in-depth. However, more on The Clunker later.

 

After my dialogue on The Unitary plan I had a discussion with Angela Dalton of Manurewa Local Board and two Papakura Local Board members (who I will look up their names shortly). The discussion came to the Glenora Road Rail Station at Addison, Takanini; 5-minutes from where I live. I was told that Auckland Transport are not doing Glenora Road Station AT ALL because of the $35 million cost for the station. $6 million for platforms, shelters, park and ride, kiss and ride and bus interchange (so a fully fledged station minus people manning it); $29 million for the grade-separation at Walters Road 50 metres south. AT forecasts the patronage figures at 952 daily using Glenora Road which I called Bollocks on straight away as a justification in not building the station.

I will also write a separate post on the Glenora Road situation and call AT on this as I know that station will attract at minimum five times that amount (952) as a conservative figure as the area grows (regardless of Takanini closing down or not).

 

But the 952 gives light to a mega-embarrassing situation that has not been aired yet on the Auckland laundry line. That is our honestly shameful rail utilisation figures which on average over 363 days a year (there are no passenger trains on Good Friday and Christmas Day) stands at 27,000 a day or 20.5% of potential patronage if we ran every train on average 67% full day in day out (see explanation at bottom of post). 

Let me run the numbers with you:

 

The Numbers using 325 services a day (average) per Auckland Transport

 

On existing services (there are 325 a day average according to the Fare Evasion Modelling) AT expects around 30,000 passengers a day. That means 92 passengers a service and our current diesel fleet holds anywhere between 350 to 750 depending on the train class (safe loading – not crush loadings). So 92 passengers means the train is anywhere between 12% full to 26% full AS AN AVERAGE as I know some trains are packed out.

Using 10 million as the rolling annual target we are at 27,000 passengers a day which gives an actual utilisation AVERAGE (weekends are in here) of 10-23% and we need around 40,000,000 rail passenger trips annually using the existing diesel fleet if the utilisation was at 67% (rather than 100% – see explanation below)

 

If we take the averages across the fleet (which with out diesels it does not make this easy as we have a heterogeneous fleet currently) then followed by the new EMU fleet all running at the maximum 6-car – top and tail config (two EMU-3s put together) this happens:

If the average diesel train holds 507 passengers average and 67% puts it at 339 passengers required, multiply that out by 325 services means you need Monday to Thursday 110,099 passengers a day to get ANY WHERE near turn over rates mentioned above. And yes I know the ADL-2 and ADK-4 can not hold 507 passengers – but this is averages here made out from the SA/SD 6 car sets holding 750 passengers. 

 

Let me try this for the EMU as EMU-6 car sets which hold 750 passengers

67% means 502 passengers and across the existing 325 services means you need: 163,150 passengers DAILY to make this viable, while AT is playing around with 30,000 a day or 92 passengers per train service. This means for an EMU-6-car running at an average of 12% full.

10-26% utilisation rate?

As a grand total figure we need with the EMU’s all running on just the existing provisions moving about 60 million rail passenger trips a year (this is at the 67% average utilisation rate) (so 6 time more than now) and we have not even stepped up the services yet to well over 400/day Monday to Friday at the minimum as planned.

 
This is mega embarrassing folks to have our existing rail utilisation at any where between 10-26% (92 passengers average for every single service – and depending on train type) per service which means Auckland is at no more than 18% of rail utilisation compared to its minimum viable capacity which stands at 67% of total maximum capacity – if we were carrying the 30,000 AT is modelling for at the moment. However remember as I mentioned above only 27,000 approximate people on average use the trains a day (10 million divided by 363 days)  which means knock another 2% off the utilisation rates.

 

I did say mega embarrassing now didn’t I? To be honest as an Aucklander I would be deeply embarrassed at the situation before us right now with our heavy rail. We have seen growth to above 10 million only for it to slip back below that milestone in February this year. But we seem to be stuck in a rut in getting the figures where it should be. AT forecasted the annual rail passenger trips near the 12,500,000 mark which means around 34,500 a day or a utilisation rate of around 23%, but that has slipped to 10.5 million so the figures fall back to around 30,000 a day.

We have a long way to go folks to get near 60 million annual rail passenger trips (might as well use EMU figures now with them coming on-stream soon) (60 million at 67% average utilisation across ALL 325 existing services) – which means the theoretical capacity stands at 90 million.

 

Still 9,996,066 annual rail passenger tips for the existing diesels and we need 40,000,000 for it to be viable, 60,000,000 when the EMU’s are all on stream. Remember this total average utilisation figure rises if you run more services. For example say the CRL is complete and all EMUs are running as 6-car sets holding a maximum capacity of 750 passengers and we go to 410 services average a day, 363 days a year. That means at 67% utilisation across  the services one would need 74,500,000 annual trips approximate for the entire operation to be viable. The Auckland Plan calls for by 2041, 140 million trips to be made a year by public transport – all modes…

 

Note: my figures are expressed as a percentage of 67% average utilisation or carrying numbers (which is 67% of the total maximum capacity) – not the actual total maximum capacity numbers (which would be 100% utilisation or carrying numbers). 67% was derived from the theoretical minimum all services would have to carry as an average for the Auckland Metro Rail system to be viable, and takes into account the system will be: 

  1. never at 100% utilisation across all services

  2. balances out across the services where are individual services are at 95-105% utilisation and others are around the 10% currently and also projected. It basically allows for a generous spread and average from varying patronage numbers per individual service.

 

So with this very embarrassing situation that makes me deeply embarrassed as an Aucklander to be confronted by this

 

The situation also reinforces my released Statement on Auckland’s Transport this morning which you can read below in the Scribd embed

 

I await Auckland Transport’s reply

 

Integrated Transport Program Approved

·

$60 Billion – 30 year ITP Approved

 

I was at the Auckland Transport Board meeting today listening in on the Integrated Transport Program as well as (and mainly) any blood-letting from the latest patronage figures I alluded to earlier this week.

 

The AT Board did today however, did approve the $60 billion – 30 year Integrated Transport Program. In short the ITP brings together finally a single approach in dealing with all of Auckland‘s transport system from road to rail, car to train, cyclist to walker to ferry. The ITP also lists the amount of money needed – an eye watering $60 billion to maintain and renew existing transport assets while also investing in new transport assets as well. But as the ITP report states as embedded below; the funding is $15 billion short of the $60 billion needed. To make matters more interesting despite the investment via the ITP, Auckland will still be apparently worse off – go figure?

 

I’ll investigate this some more over Easter but for now happy reading

 

The Integrated Transport Program

 

Welcome To Auckland

·

Where We Take Our Time

 

Someone is going to like me for this

I am in Australia for two weeks and go into Manukau to conduct my business today and look what I see:

No movement what so ever in the construction of the MIT Building and AT Bus Interchange next to the Manukau Rail Station. It still looks like a shell and still looks dead with no activity.

 

There is a sign (that didn’t show up in the photo well) that does say MIT (and the bus interchange) will be open Mid-2013. I like to see this opening date still met with the site in its current form.

And as of last month, Auckland Transport were not aware of any delays of installing the gate line and ticket office down at Manukau. I might go check that out tomorrow and give an update to the Transport Committee.

 

So much for thinking work did resume on the project down at Manukau…

 

Rail Patronage Below 10 Million

·

STOP PRESS: Auckland‘s Rail Patronage Below 10 Million

 

Just in from Auckland Transport. I have just scoured the latest Auckland Transport Patronage Figures for ‘as-of’ February 2013 especially for rail.

 

There was a time two years ago when I was side by side with the mayor while working for Veolia Transport Auckland feeling proud and delighted with the Mayor that we had hit our 10 millionth rail passenger marking a new age for Auckland’s rail network. There was even cake and a photo of the occasion somewhere too.

 

However I read the latest rail patronage figures this evening released by AT at their website. You can see the figures in the embed below but I bring your attention to page ten of twenty-seven – the rail figures which stand at 9,996,066 today. A slippage from the 10,900,000 peak in August 2012 to now just under 10 million.

 

I wonder what AT will trot out on Wednesday at that meeting with now basically half the city alerted after the figures went around Twitter and Facebook…

 

That Statistics Report:

 

And as Patrick Reynolds on Twitter said:

  1. @BenRoss_AKL some crazy fare dodging going on because of generous gating and policing processes. #akrail

Ben Ross ‏@BenRoss_AKL10m

@pv_reynolds you said it not me. I gather fare dodging is at 16-28%

 

Panic stations any one?

SkyPath Update

·

Update on SkyPath

 

While away on holiday in Australia I had noticed that the SkyPath project had updated their website and posted a public notice meeting on the North Shore tomorrow night at 6pm (ouch as main rush hour is still happening at that time).

 

You can check the much more easier to read SkyPath website over at skypath.org.nz – with the public notice invitation below:

 

I am still pondering in making the trek to The Shore tomorrow as it means I have to leave Papakura at 4:30 to battle State Highway One traffic (fun – not)

However might be a good idea to trundle along to see where opinion is currently at

 

 

 

March Madness

·

City Still Reeling from Thursday’s Motorway Disaster

 

I am still seeing reports all over the main stream media and social media on the traffic chaos from Thursday’s crash on the Newmarket Viaduct right in the afternoon peak. Pretty much the city is still reeling from what can be described as an absolute disaster as buses, cars and trucks were basically going nowhere in Central Auckland. In the end walking and trains (for those who could use them) proved to be the fastest method of transit on Thursday afternoon.

 

The Herald ran a piece this morning on the Thursday disaster:

From the NZ Herald:

Forecast: More traffic chaos ahead

By Mathew Dearnaley

5:30 AM Saturday Mar 9, 2013

Auckland’s worst traffic gridlock for years was caused by an extra squeeze of pressure on a stretched transport network – and it is not over yet.

Although the city has struggled through its busiest traffic week of the year, culminating in Thursday’s chaos after a serious crash closed all four southbound lanes of the main motorway out of town, Auckland Transport warns of a difficult weekend.

It is urging Aucklanders and their visitors to consider using public transport or share car rides with friends or neighbours as hundreds of thousands of people throng to a raft of events over the weekend.

Commuters stewed in traffic queues over three successive afternoons, but the longest were caused by the cascading impact of a 2-hour closure of Newmarket Viaduct’s southbound carriageway at the height of Thursday’s peak travel period.

The viaduct is the country’s busiest section of motorway, normally carrying 7000 southbound vehicles an hour during afternoon peaks, and the closure from a serious crash could not have come at a worst time for what the Transport Agency acknowledges is a highly sensitive urban traffic network.

…

Not only that, but Auckland Transport says this was already the busiest traffic week of the year, as students hasten to the first classes of term joined other commuters trying to make an earnest start back at work from the summer holidays.

The phenomenon known as “March madness” happens every year, and tends to ease off after the first frenzied week, but Automobile Association traffic spokesman Phil Allen says he has never seen a worst example of gridlock than on Thursday afternoon.

…

You can read the rest over at the Herald

 

The point I am raising here is that unless we get on top of the transport situation, Thursday is only going to repeat itself more often and will absolutely cripple the city as we move towards two million people.

This week alone I had written several transport related posts that interlink to Thursday’s chaos:

SOUTHERN MOTORWAY GRIDLOCK – Bring Back the Eastern Highway?

A post on how if the Eastern Highway and the Botany Line were built in 2004, a fully operational and high-capacity back up route for trucks, buses, cars and trains (the trains tapping into the currently unreached East Auckland) in and out of the CBD bypassing State Highway one could have alleviated some if not a lot of the mess from a blocked State Highway One

 

PATRONAGE BELOW FORECAST – Rail Patronage Some Millions Below Forecast

This touched on an interview on Radio NZ with Auckland Transport Chair Dr Lester Levy and how rail patronage is going to be some two and a half million passenger trips below forecast ending June 30. Full trains mean an easier run on the motorway, empty trains as they currently are mean a blocked State Highway one – and I have seen both situations.

 

This weekend would have been a perfect opportunity to showcase our public transport system with an absolute diverse range of events including Pasifika Festival in Western Springs and Around the Bays tomorrow which bring out countless residents and visitors today. You would think rather than operate our infrequent weekend timetables today, Auckland Transport would go out of their way and actually run a full Friday timetable for buses and trains to help getting people out of cars and freeing up the roads. Further more you think our fares would be affordable to also get people into public transport. This means actually selling the old Rail Family Pass right across the rail network rather than Britomart, Newmarket and New Lynn; and allow that Pass to be used freely on bus shuttles from Britomart and Morningside to Western Springs for Pasifika. I even called on AT for reasons why this is not happening:

  1. and @AklTransport any reason why Rail Ticket Inspectors not selling the old Family Pass up and down the entire network today?

  2. Ben Ross ‏@BenRoss_AKL

    @AklTransport any reason why we are not operating Friday Train and Bus Timetables today with the amount of events on.#repeatingthursday?

 

Perfect opportunity today for public transport – wasted! Lord help any one on the roads today if they back up…

 

Moving on

 

GOING FORWARD – Progress

This post mentioned that despite Thursday I can feel confident and excited on a new leaf being turned for our transport system – for the better. That this new leaf and evolution will be led by private citizen initiatives rather than public civic institution led and that in time Auckland will actually have an integrated transport system that we all understand.

 

 

What will my next commentary be on March 25? I wonder with Auckland’s Transport