Two new polls out today – this afternoon’s Roy Morgan, and this evening’s 3News Reid Research poll.

In the Roy Morgan poll, National rise to 46.5% (up 1.5%), while Labour slumps 2% to 24%, and the Greens drop an even larger 2.5% to 13.5%.

It’s a great poll result for NZ First, who rise to 8.0% (up 2%). It’s their second best result from any major polling company this year, beaten only by the 8.1% they achieved in the latest Herald Digipoll.

For the remaining minor parties, the Maori Party hits 1.5% (up 1%), United Future rises from zero to 0.5%, ACT loses half of their support, dropping from 1% to 0.5%, and there’s no change for Internet Mana and the Conservatives, on 1.0% and 3.5% respectively.

The 3News Reid Research poll, meanwhile, is a very different beast. National achieve their worst result this year from any major pollster, hitting…

For some reason, Fairfax have delayed the release of their 11 September 2014 Ipsos poll to this morning (the Ipsos Polling Station on Stuff even calls it their “September 11 2014 Poll”). It’s almost standard these days to describe each new poll as “another bad for Labour”, but this Ipsos poll is the worst result Labour has had this year from any major polling company.

Labour slumps 1.9% to just 22.4%. On that sort of election day result, Labour would be losing (depending on how various electorate results go) Sue Moroney, Andrew Little, Maryan Street, Moana Mackey, Kelvin Davis, Raymond Huo and Carol Beaumont, while Jacinda Ardern would be looking anxiously at the level of wasted vote, hoping it would bump her in. (If Labour lose both Palmerston North and Port Hills, it would be Andrew Little looking anxiously at the wasted vote level, while Iain Lees-Galloway wouldn’t make it from…

So Cameron Slater is now officially a journalist, for the purposes of the Evidence Act 2006. Here’s a copy of the High Court’s judgment, thanks to Peter Aranyi at The Paepae (whose post ‘High Court serves a mixed bag for PR attack blogger Cameron Slater‘ is worth reading).

With the unfolding of the Dirty Politics saga after the High Court appeal hearing had occurred, commentators had wondered whether the Judge would reopen the hearing. Mr Blomfield attempted to produce additional evidence that had flowed from the Dirty Politics book, but was quickly rebuffed. In the judgment, Asher J merely notes that leave was declined to introduce further evidence “on the basis that it is hearsay or privileged”.

This gives rise to elements of (possibly) unintentional humour, such as where the Judge states at para 66, “While he [Slater] will often refer to other materials, there was no evidence…

I’ve got a $5 bet with Matthew Beveridge, author of the Social Media & the 2014 Election blog, regarding the Greens’ vote share in comparison to Labour (High stakes, baby! That’s half of a possible 2017 tax cut – not to be sneezed at!). Matt is betting on the Greens getting at least 50% of what Labour gets; I’m betting they won’t. With the way the polls are running, I’m definitely not on a sure thing…

Last week, One Newsreported that the Greens were “discussing a change of strategy in light of their strengthening support”. The “change of strategy” was apparently evident in Russel Norman’s reminder during last week’s minor party leaders’ debate that the Greens could work on a case by case basis with National. The plan is apparently to tell voters that even if Labour can’t form a Government, a vote for the Greens won’t be wasted, as they’ll be…

This evening, we’ve just had the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll released, with some quite interesting results.

National slump a large 4% to 46%. That places them in the danger zone, where David Cunliffe could potentially form a coalition, albeit one involving the Greens, NZ First, Internet Mana and the Maori Party.

Labour drops too, down 1% to just 25%. Yet another poll, yet another bad result for Labour.

The Greens are the big movers, up 3% to 14%, a result they’ll be more than happy with.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First remains on 7%, comfortably above the 5% threshold, while the Conservatives climb 1.1% to 4%. It’s yet another good poll for the Conservatives, but they’re still awaiting a result that puts them over 5%.

ACT also have some significant movement, going from 0.1% to 1.2%. That’s the first poll this year that has had them above 1%, and it’s ever so close…

Tax cuts – they’re coming, in April 2017, should National be re-elected. Maybe. Depending on whether economic and fiscal conditions allow.

But what form will these tax cuts take? That’s a good question, to which no one is any the wiser. By April 2017, National projects that they’ll have accrued a pool of $1.5 billion, of which apparently $1 billion will be set aside for tax cuts, while the remaining $500 million will go towards debt reduction. Tax cuts will be targeted to lower and middle income earners, but how National intends to structure the cuts is a mystery.

And what will these lower and middle income earners receive in their back pockets? Well, here things get really strange. Last week, John Key was pulling numbers from thin aid, pondering anything from $10, $20, $30… Then over the weekend on TheNation, Bill English was denying that any numbers had been…