I’ve got a $5 bet with Matthew Beveridge, author of the Social Media & the 2014 Election blog, regarding the Greens’ vote share in comparison to Labour (High stakes, baby! That’s half of a possible 2017 tax cut – not to be sneezed at!). Matt is betting on the Greens getting at least 50% of what Labour gets; I’m betting they won’t. With the way the polls are running, I’m definitely not on a sure thing…

Last week, One Newsreported that the Greens were “discussing a change of strategy in light of their strengthening support”. The “change of strategy” was apparently evident in Russel Norman’s reminder during last week’s minor party leaders’ debate that the Greens could work on a case by case basis with National. The plan is apparently to tell voters that even if Labour can’t form a Government, a vote for the Greens won’t be wasted, as they’ll be…

This evening, we’ve just had the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll released, with some quite interesting results.

National slump a large 4% to 46%. That places them in the danger zone, where David Cunliffe could potentially form a coalition, albeit one involving the Greens, NZ First, Internet Mana and the Maori Party.

Labour drops too, down 1% to just 25%. Yet another poll, yet another bad result for Labour.

The Greens are the big movers, up 3% to 14%, a result they’ll be more than happy with.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First remains on 7%, comfortably above the 5% threshold, while the Conservatives climb 1.1% to 4%. It’s yet another good poll for the Conservatives, but they’re still awaiting a result that puts them over 5%.

ACT also have some significant movement, going from 0.1% to 1.2%. That’s the first poll this year that has had them above 1%, and it’s ever so close…

Tax cuts – they’re coming, in April 2017, should National be re-elected. Maybe. Depending on whether economic and fiscal conditions allow.

But what form will these tax cuts take? That’s a good question, to which no one is any the wiser. By April 2017, National projects that they’ll have accrued a pool of $1.5 billion, of which apparently $1 billion will be set aside for tax cuts, while the remaining $500 million will go towards debt reduction. Tax cuts will be targeted to lower and middle income earners, but how National intends to structure the cuts is a mystery.

And what will these lower and middle income earners receive in their back pockets? Well, here things get really strange. Last week, John Key was pulling numbers from thin aid, pondering anything from $10, $20, $30… Then over the weekend on TheNation, Bill English was denying that any numbers had been…

Back when John Key confirmed there would be no East Coast Bays deal for Colin Craig, I happily wrote off the Conservative Party. With no hope of winning an electorate seat, they had no choice but to make 5% of the vote, which was one hell of a long shot.

However, if I cast my eye around the internet, I’ve apparently been far too early to write them off. In the NZ Herald this morning, there’s John Roughan talking up the Conservatives in his opinion piece “Craig’s day in the sun may dawn“. The latest Herald Digipoll says National voters would prefer a coalition with the Conservatives, rather than NZ First. And over at the Dim-Post, Danyl McLauchlan publishes his bias-adjusted tracking poll and predicts “The Conservatives will probably cross the 5% threshold.”

Personally, I stand by my prediction that the Conservatives won’t make it. One poll…

ACT’s campaign launch occurred yesterday. It’s slightly odd that the party would launch their campaign after people have already started voting, but there you go. Keeping their powder dry and all that…

Party leader Jamie Whyte’s keynote speech to the ACT faithful was everything his party would have hoped for – a mixture of hard-hitting attacks on just about every party around (I think the only party he didn’t bother to attack was United Future, which is a good measure of Peter Dunne’s continued irrelevance) and the release of some old-fashioned back-to-ACT’s-roots policy.

Policy-wise, ACT would abolish the Overseas Investment Office:

It has no proper job to do. When foreigners invest in New Zealand, we benefit. There is no injury for the OIO to protect us from.

Likewise, the Resource Management Act would go to:

The problem is not with the administration of the RMA. The problem is with the very…

EDIT: Further updated with the One News Colmar Brunton poll, which had overlooked my attention.

Another day, another three polls, with the Herald Digipoll, Fairfax Ipsos and One News Colmar Brunton polls being released today. All three results are good news for National, after some recent lacklustre polling, and bad news for Labour, with their lacklustre polling continuing.

In the Herald Digipoll, National fall slightly, down 0.6%, but they’re still above 50%, sitting on 50.1%. National may have fallen slightly, but so have Labour, who drop 0.3% to a terrible 23.8%. The Greens remain static on 11.4%.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First rise 1% to 6%, while the Conservatives climb 0.5% to 3.%. ACT (on 0.4%), United Future (on 0.2%) and Internet Mana (on 3.5%) all rise 0.1%. The only minor party dropping is the Maori Party, down 0.6% to 0.4%.

In the Fairfax Ipsos poll, National rises sharply, up 3.4% to 54.2%…

National has announced that it will set up a $100 million fund to buy and retire farmland next to important waterways. The idea is that it will create an environmental buffer to improve water quality. Further, by July 2017 it will be illegal not to have waterways fenced off.

On the face of it, it’s a good policy. Why wouldn’t you want to improve water quality by setting up buffer zones to keep cattle out? What could be wrong with fencing off paddocks from the river?

Well, even Amy Adams, National’s Environment Minister admits that 90% of waterways next to farms are already fenced off, and as Andrew Hoggard, the Federated Farmers dairy chairman, says, a ban was effectively already in place:

“It’s in our conditions to supply to Fonterra. If you don’t meet the conditions of supply, they won’t pick your milk up, and you’ll be out of business…

Internet Mana had been the minor party with momentum. As the Party Party / Internet Mana Roadshow worked its way around the country, the coverage was positive – crowds of hundreds flocking at each venue to see Dotcom, Harre, Harawira and the local candidates; mixtures of young, middle-aged and old; the anti-authority message hitting the headlines on a regular basis. Since mid-July, Internet Mana was consistently hitting at least 2% in the polls, even hitting the heady heights of 3.9% in the mid-August 3News Reid Research poll.

And then the wheels seemed to fall off. The “Fuck John Key” saga may not have had an immediate effect, but it hinted at a nasty, darker side to the party’s leadership. And although the party may not have had anything to do with the effigy burning and Kill the PM song that followed, it seems that Internet Mana had become, in the public…