Category: Uncategorized

Poll of Polls update – 3 September 2014

I have warned previously about National scoring a negative 2% swing against it on Election Day for it to go back to the Opposition Benches. Looking at the poll of polls (amongst other things) National is teetering on the brink of going back.

As Natusch has said:
The big news is that National loses a seat to NZ First. National has dropped 0.5% in a few days, and almost 2% in just over two weeks. It was inevitable that they’d drop during the campaign, but the drop has suddenly accelerated, which should worry National.

Big worry slipping 2% that fast and the Whaledump saga still ongoing.
If National can not arrest that slippage soon polls have a nasty tendency to become self fulfilling prophesies especially if it galvanises voters and increases turnout above 75%.
We are at T-Minus 17 days until E Day. And 3 months ago National were all but assured victory. Now? Some MP’s could be tasting opposition for the very first time

jononatusch's avatarOccasionally Erudite Publications

We’ve had two polls out today, the latest Roy Morgan poll and the 3News Reid Research poll.

In the Roy Morgan poll, there’s a slump for National, down 3% to 45%. Despite National’s fall, there’s no good news for the Labour Party, who drop 1.5% to 26%. Instead, the news is overwhelmingly good for the Greens, who rise a huge 4.5% to 16%, their best Roy Morgan result in over two years.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First may be down 0.5%, but they’re still on 6%, which would see them returned to Parliament. The Conservatives climb 2.5% to 3.5% (their highest ever Roy Morgan result), while ACT is up 0.5% to 1%. There’s bad news for the Maori Party (who drop from 1% to 0.5%), United Future (who don’t even register, having dropped 0.5%), Internet Mana (who drop 1% to 1.5%).

In the Reid Research poll, National…

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Latest poll

dpf's avatarcuriablog

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 26 to 31 August 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 46.4% (+1.4%)
  • Labour 25.9% (-0.5%)
  • Green 12.6% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 2.0%  (+1.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.7% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 5.8% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 4.2% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 33
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/121 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ…

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August ’14 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking

Up a few places last month to 38th with the blog breaking its record in most views ever.

Ken's avatarOpen Parachute

 
Hager
Bloggers in the thick of election campaign? Image Credit: Against the Current


PLEASE NOTE: Sitemeter is playing up again making it impossible to automatically get the stats using the normal process. I have done a manual work around but it was still impossible to get the stats for a number of blogs that I list below. Maybe more bloggers will shift to StatCounter or other counter.

No stats could be found for these blogs:

Blog
Works in progress
Weakly Whirled News
Two Minutes Sport
Wysiwygpurple’s Blog
Stats Chat
Social Media and the 2014 General Election
Love your work
Today is my birthday
This Mum Rocks
Sportsfreak
Infectious thoughts
Science Behind the Curtain
Grumpollie
Louis’ Outlook
West City Darts
Woodleigh Nursery
Kyle MacDonald
A conservative perspective
Save our schools NZ

There are now over 300 blogs on the list, although I am weeding out those which are no longer active or…

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Poll of Polls update – 31 August 2014

Anything but a fizzer?
Who and what? Read on

jononatusch's avatarOccasionally Erudite Publications

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll has just been released, and there’s some interesting results there.

National drop 2%, down to 48%. That’s on top of the 2% they dropped in the mid-August Colmar Brunton poll.

On the left, Labour increased 2% to 28%, while the Greens went up 1% to 12%. That’s a 5% narrowing of the gap by a Labour/Greens alliance. Given the continued floundering by National in the wake of Dirty Politics, and the confident performance by David Cunliffe in the first televised leaders’ debate (which wasn’t covered by the polling window), Labour might be in line for a continued lift in subsequent polling.

For the minor parties, NZ First is up 1% to 6%, providing a clear buffer above the 5% threshold. And there’s a good results for the Conservatives, up 0.8% to 3.2%, although it’s still nowhere near the threshold.

Internet Mana slumps badly, down…

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Enemies without and enemies within

Read the last paragraph. Dog eat dog and an empire coming to its violent end after the first implosion during the Len Brown saga…

jononatusch's avatarOccasionally Erudite Publications

Yesterday, when the news of Judith Collins’ resignation broke, I asked where the Cameron Slater email had come from. It hadn’t been released by Whaledump, and it hadn’t featured in Dirty Politics. Instead, it had been sent to the Prime Minister’s office.

John Key clarified yesterday that the email was not sent anonymously. Instead, the email came from a person who was known to the PM’s office, but the identity of that person was not going to be released.

Well, we don’t know just whose hands the incriminating email passed through on its way through the Beehive to John Key and his staff, but according to the Sunday Star-Times this morning, the source of the email was Cathy Odgers aka Cactus Kate, Cameron Slater’s partner in crime:

Knowing Fairfax was investigating the hacked emails, it is believed Odgers (known by the blog name Cactus Kate) went through her own emails…

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Cameron Slater – lies, or the art of puffery?

Follow Jono and his blog. Insightful and to the point.

jononatusch's avatarOccasionally Erudite Publications

Cameron Slater’s email to Carrick Graham, Mark possibly-Hochin and one mystery identity may have sunk Judith Collins’ political career, but Slater is standing steadfastly by her. Reading a pre-prepared statement yesterday, and taking a few media questions, he denied that Collins had done what the email said she’d done.

So was he lying in the email? Apparently not. According to Slater, he was exaggerating the truth:

“Embellished is a good word. It’s better than a lie, isn’t it?”

It’s worth looking at precisely what Slater wrote about Judith Collins’ involvement in the conspiracy to undermine then-SFO director Adam Feeley:

“I also spoke at length with the Minister responsible today (Judith Collins). She is gunning for Feeley. Any information that we can provide her on his background is appreciated. I have outlined for her a coming blog post about the massive staff turnover and she has added that to the review of…

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Serious questions for Jared Savage & the NZ Herald

Well that whacks the Herald around a bit. But also shines the light of a few things quietly suspected as well

jononatusch's avatarOccasionally Erudite Publications

So, further to the Cameron Slater email that felled Judith Collins, there’s a particular line in the email that’s rather troubling:

I am maintaining daily communications with Jared Savage at the Herald and he is passing information directly to me that the Herald can’t run and so are feeding me to run on the blog.

Perhaps Jared Savage might like to explain what precisely he as a journalist was doing feeding information to Cameron Slater that Savage couldn’t publish himself. If the NZ Herald can’t use certain information in a story, it’s presumably because they’re worried about the legal consequences. So why would a reputable journalist then pass that information on to a blogger to use?

Let’s look at the Len Brown sex scandal story. It wasn’t something any mainstream media outlet was going to touch. Until it was all over the Whaleoil site, which meant that it was now…

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Judith Collins resigns

Resigned as Minister but not as Papakura Electorate MP. I live in Papakura but Judith lost my vote a while ago.

jononatusch's avatarOccasionally Erudite Publications

Oravida and the mysterious Chinese border control official, the Simon Pleasants leak, Bronwyn Pullar’s Privacy Commission complaint, plotting to roll John Key after the election – the allegations just kept coming.

Now there’s the allegation that she conspired with Cameron Slater and others to discredit former Serious Fraud Office director Adam Feeley. This while she was Minister of Justice – the Minister in charge of the SFO.

She’s resigned as a Minister, and John Key has accepted that resignation. As with the Oravida saga, she believes that she’s the victim here (the vast left wing smear campaign continues…), and she’s resigning to focus on clearing her name. She’ll be staying on as MP for Papakura though, although John Key, in his press conference at the Beehive, made it clear that she could not expect a Ministerial role if National is re-elected (not at least until her name is cleared).

A 2011 email from Slater to Carrick…

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Auckland Trasnport Replies to the EMU Situation

Auckland Transport have replied directly to my Local Government Official Information and Meetings Act request to the Electric Train Fleet groundinng in July.

Auckland Transport Communications Manager Wally Thomas has said (in regards to the saga):

After 12 weeks of revenue services, disruption first occurred late in the afternoon of July 21 when the EMU shut down after detecting high voltages on the overhead line. As has been widely reported AT temporarily suspended services after several similar events. Onehunga line services return on July 31 however despite rigorous testing to try and replicate the fault, the core issue has yet to be fully identified and diagnosed. In the event of over voltage the EMUs are designed to shutdown to prevent any damage to drive components – in this respect the train performed as designed. The traction system has two feeder substations at Westfield and Penrose. When the initial events were recorded on July 21 and 22 the power supply was switched from Westfield (which was the feed substation for the 12 weeks of successful running previously) to Penrose. The problem however continued. This is a complex issue and not unusual internationally for a rollout of this sort. The issues continue to be worked on by a specialist technical working group comprising AT, KiwiRail, CAF and Transdev, with Transpower also in attendance as and when required. We are also seeking international input and review.

………………….

So Auckland Transport are pulling all the stops out to find the original fault and fix it. AT, KiwiRail, Transdev, Transpower and CAF have sought international help as well.

The good thing is the safety systems have kicked in the with the overvoltage! The bad news is trying to get down to the nuts and bolts of the fault in the first place. I have asked Auckland Transport to keep me up to date. They have said yes (to which I send my thanks) and I will be in contact with them next Friday to see where things are going.

The other bit of good news is that the EMU’s are working well on the Manukau Line and performing to expectations. Next step is to test the Manukau Line with the double consist 6 car set which can carry 750 passengers in the Morning and Evening peaks. For starters they would carry more than the SA 6 car diesels which normally carry 650. So fingers crosses and looking forward to the next step. Oh and of course the EMUs on the Southern Line where they will get a good testing.

My thanks to Auckland Transport for their reply on the EMU grounding issue. Much appreciated 🙂