Category: Uncategorized

Statistics Minister Interfering with Elections?

·

Interfering with Auckland‘s Local Government Elections from the Minister of Statistics

 

 

As soon as the preliminary Census Data findings were released yesterday did Statistics Minister (who would oversee the Census) drop a rant about Auckland’s population growth and use it as a tool to bash the City Rail Link and Unitary Plan.

You can see the Minister’s rant in part here:

Census calls rail loop into question

By Isaac Davison @Isaac_Davison 5:30 AM Tuesday Oct 8, 2013

Reduced growth figures suggest revision of Auckland’s infrastructure plans needed, claims Statistics Minister.

Statistics Minister Maurice Williamson says new Census data which show that New Zealand population growth has halved since the last Census could prompt revision of Auckland’s infrastructure plans such as an increase in high-rise apartments and the construction of a city rail loop.

But Auckland Council is standing by its plans for growth, saying that Auckland is expected to grow faster than the rest of the country.

The council’s planning for the next 30 years is based on the prediction that the number of residents will grow by 1 million.

Mr Williamson said the first Census data in seven years indicated that this projection was far too high.

Statistics New Zealand figures released yesterday showed that on Census night, there were 214,101 more people in New Zealand than at the previous Census in 2006. This meant the population had grown by 31,000 a year over the past seven years, compared to 58,000 a year in the previous period of 2001 to 2006.

“This is a huge surprise – bigger than Ben Hur,” Mr Williamson said. “It’s nearly half the growth rate that everyone had been basing their historic numbers on.

…

 

Already debunked all that twice now and not really willing to do it a third time.

 

What I will post however is two “replies” to the Minister stepping into an area that he should clearly not:

From the Deputy Mayor and Chair of the Auckland Plan Committee (that oversees the Unitary Plan) Penny Hulse:

  • Rule number one: Ministers of Statistics are not meant to use statistics for political purposes.

  • Rule number two: Ministers should use the correct information. Williamson doesn’t realise that the figures used for the Unitary plan are based on Stats NZ forward projections. These figures will not be available until next year. The census data as presented is not directly relevant to the plan. It is prudent to plan for growth and as all the experts are saying, we have so far exceeded growth projection since 1991. If growth slows, so does development, no problem….we still need to plan a city around good transport and affordable housing choices.

 

From an Activist and Commentator:

It could be possibly understand that Maurice Williamson has annoyed several of his colleagues by using his position as Statistics Minister to wade into the mayoral debate to help John Palino, and take a swing at Len Brown.

Williamson has effectively questioned the viability of the Government’s agreement with the Council over the City Rail Link, which the Government wanted (the issue) taken off the table (Unless it wants to give the Centre-Left free ammunition for continuous free hits that should not need to have happened). Even more annoyingly for the Government, Williamson’s clumsy decision to take a swing at Brown using dodgy figures.

As Williamson knows, immigration flows are cyclical. In the last three years, New Zealand has had low migration because we have been at the bottom of the migration cycle. All the current projections are that migration is picking up again, quickly, as happens in any cycle. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9071532/Migration-boom-could-defeat-home-loan-restrictions

It is dishonest of Williamson to suggest that long-term, New Zealand migration flows, and therefore Auckland population levels, will remain at constant lows. Williamson might be regretting that he bottled his opportunity to go after the Mayoralty himself when he had the chance, but he needs to remember that he’s a Government Minister, part of a Government that has to work with New Zealand’s largest city, and not Palino’s campaign sponsor.

 

I have relayed those points as I agree with them. Williamson is interfering as a Minister of the Crown in Auckland’s Local Elections with his rather dim-witted rant. Already Auckland’s voting turnout is at (as of now) 22.42% compared to 33.8% in 2010 we don’t need a Minister’s rant and incorrect information putting people off – we already have enough of that from aspects of the media and some candidates. Speaking of which I see the Main Stream Media are quoting Williamson without fact-checking – typical…

 

Furthermore Williamson’s rant can put a chill on consumer and business confidence if we see mucking around and interference. While iPredict does show Len on a 96.9% chance of winning mayor for a second term thus Williamson’s rant as possibly as much of a side issue as berms/verges, again we do not need any more crap being thrown around giving further risk to chilling voters, consumers and businesses.

 

Let me, the people, voters and businesses decide in Auckland decide what they want with their elected representatives for Auckland. Not some Minister who should have been put out to pasture a long time ago…

 

Related articles

Evaluating John Palino’s Unitary Plan Policy

·

An interesting piece here from Louis. While I could say he is Centre-Left his analysis is quite sound and methodical (and respectable in language). Good contribution to the debate Louis and something I would incline to agree with you on against Palino

Auckland Conversations – Urban Economics

Ben Ross - Talking Auckland's avatar

I am here at Aotea Centre waiting for the start on today’s Auckland Conversation piece on Urban Economics: Up or Out.

I will be tweeting live from the event as it happens.

I also wonder if I should open live bets on the questions. That is will we get some actual real questions asked to the panel (which includes our Deputy Mayor) today or will we get the same patsy questions from the same patsy people pushing their same patsy barrow.

I suppose we will soon see.

Status · ·

Internet Down, Blogging Restricted

·

The reliance on the Digital Age is apparent when you lose your main internet connection for 6 days due to both Telecom and Vodafone being as useless as tits on a bull. 6 days to restore my internet to the desktop which hinders not only the blog but also TotaRim client interaction with contracts sitting in the pipeline.

Blog Posts limited while main internet is down. It means I can not effectively blog the Population Trends – Auckland Conversations piece from Wednesday Night. I do have the powerpoints from it though which is good news. Once full internet is back I will get the blog going again. In the meantime thanks to 2 Degrees and Samsung I am teethring the tablet to my phone and using it as a portable modem.

I Thank you for your patience in this duration

A Fresh Perspective at the Unitary Plan

·

The Unitary Plan from Zoe’s Perspective

 

I caught this piece from a comment mayoral candidate John Palino made on Facebook yesterday morning while I was reading Orsman’s piece from the NZ Herald. It is called “The Unitary Plan – Zoe’s Perspective” and it takes a look the Unitary Plan from Zoe’s viewpoint.

An extract from Channel:

The Unitary Plan – Zoe’s Perspective

Zoe Lenzie-Smith is a 20 year old student who stepped up to present her perspective on the Unitary Plan in the public forum of the Devonport-Takapuna Local Board meeting held on Tuesday May 21st. Her perspective certainly added some balance to the heated debate.

Zoe is an undergraduate studying a BSc majoring in Biology, and a specification of Environmental Science at the University of Auckland. She was born in Abingdon, Oxfordshire, England, and emigrated to Auckland in 2000 – and considered herself to be a kiwi as soon as she arrived. Zoe says she loves the sea, great music, weekend markets and is passionate about working with people to create positive change that benefits the survival of future generations. She is a member of a group called Generation Zero.

 

This is a solution focused social movement of young people. It’s purpose is to move thinking beyond fossil fuels and mitigate against the threat of climate change. This was the content of Zoe’s presentation to the Devonport Takapuna Local Board.

20 year old student Zoe Lenzie-Smith made this presentation to the public forum of the Devonport-Takapuna Local Board in late May:

…

You can read the rest over at the Channel’s website

What Zoe did at the Devonport-Takapuna Local Board meeting on The Unitary Plan would have taken courage above and beyond what would be “normally required.” I say that as I know the North Shore UP meetings went towards the rabid end if the Auckland 2040 debunking on this blog was anything to go by.

In Zoe presenting her legitimate case to the Local Board though on what SHE wants to see in the Unitary Plan and thus the future of her Auckland – her home, I tip my hat out of absolute respect and encouragement.

 

Yet it is not over with the Unitary Plan. There is still more come even before formal notification at the end of the year. We still have:

  • Initial responses to the feedback round of the Unitary Plan
  • Changes to the UP as a result of the feedback
  • Southern Rural Urban Boundary work in getting studies and further consultations on the three options available to us down here in the South
  • That cursed Housing Accord and its Special Housing Areas

Oh the fun times ahead

But myself and my firm will be here through to the end with the Unitary Plan providing our range of services tailored for you.

TALKING AUCKLAND

Talking Auckland: Blog of TotaRim Consultancy Limited

TotaRim Consultancy
Bringing Well Managed Progress to Auckland and The Unitary Plan

Auckland: 2013 – YOUR CITY, YOUR CALL

 

 

http://www.channelmag.co.nz/community-mainmenu-35/webpage-2702/the-unitary-plan-zoe-s-perspective

Legitimate Concerns with the Unitary Plan?

·

What Do you Think?

 

With the Unitary Plan feedback due to close on Friday, we are still getting rumblings on the Unitary Plan popping up in the media. This particular one came up in the Herald this morning – and was not written by Orsman (meaning I will pay attention):

Support for draft plan ‘fading fast’

By Wayne Thompson

Local boards urge mayor to slow things down as ‘enhanced engagement process’ causing confusion.

 

Mayor Len Brown was urged to slow down the process. Photo / NZPA

EXPAND
Mayor Len Brown was urged to slow down the process. Photo / NZPA

Support for the draft Unitary Plan is “melting faster than snow in sunshine” amid widespread anxiety over intensive housing proposals, say the leaders of three local boards from Orakei, Manurewa and Hibiscus & Bays.

In a joint statement, the leaders say the 11-week so-called “enhanced engagement process” for the pre-notified new rule book for growth has confused the public and lacks credible evidence of the effects of higher-density zoning.

Public comments on the draft plan will be accepted up to 5pm on Friday and so far 3000 individual comments have come in.

However, Orakei Local Board chairwoman Desley Simpson predicted a low response from the usually outspoken eastern suburbs people.

Most people were “in the dark” about the council’s disclosure, after nine weeks of presentations, that 70 per cent of the area was proposed for a mixed housing zone, with a maximum height of three storeys instead of two.

They would have wanted a say if they had known that was the case, she said, and urged Mayor Len Brown to slow down the process, which is scheduled to produce a final draft version for public consultation in September.

Manurewa Local Board chairwoman Angela Dalton called on the council to show its evidence in favour of planning for 7000 extra houses in the area. The board’s own market research – presented to the council – showed it was unlikely to happen.

…

You can read the rest of the article over at the Herald.

There are several messages cropping up here:

  1. Participation in the Unitary Plan process thus far
  2. Evidence on Council’s methodology behind aspects some zoning like Mixed Housing Zones and the Centres (especially in Town and Local Centres)
  3. The next round of engagement with the Unitary Plan

 

In the case the of participation, the best way to hear the rumblings is listen to this (it is free but you do need to register first) http://www.allaboutauckland.com/video/2253/cr-wood—unitary-plan-notification-delay/1

After that I would recommend reading my “Skewing of the Unitary Plan” in regard to the demographic skewering of Unitary Participation to see where we are at (and the imbalance as well)

With regards to “Evidence on Council’s methodology behind aspects some zoning like Mixed Housing Zones and the Centres (especially in Town and Local Centres);” I have seen a post from Phil McDermott that covers aspects of this and will repost his thoughts later today.

In regards to the next round of engagement with the Unitary Plan; it will be with Local Boards and Key Stakeholders (I got ranked as a Key Stakeholder by Council in regards to the UP – whether I participate in this next round is yet to be seen) around June-July. This is per the resolution moved by the Auckland Plan Committee this month. What this next round with entail and how much effect it will have in reshaping the Unitary Plan is yet to be seen.

 

So legitimate concerns with the Unitary Plan or full of wind? Comments below. My own opinion currently is; allow the May 31 deadline to pass. However, I am interested to see what this next round with Local Boards and Key Stakeholders will entail. More to the point will that particular round have any real grunt in getting changes through in reshaping the UP…

Time will tell

 

My Housing Mix in Auckland

· 2 Comments ·

I am mentioning My Housing Mix again today as I am off to the Southern Auckland Civic Forum at the old Manukau City Council building this morning from 10am. We will be discussing today housing options hence why the reblog on my attempt at housing mixes:

I have been invited to another Civic Forum on the Unitary Plan to which I am going to the Manukau session this Saturday. By the looks of the invitation we will be looking at with the Unitary Plan team:
Key things are:
how we create housing choices and more affordable housing
how we enable businesses to develop and grow
how we protect our region’s environment, heritage and character.

So residential, commercial and industrial matters which I have covered previously in these posts: “THE UNITARY PLAN, AND THE CMCP AND SLPD’S,” “THE CLUNKER AND BUSINESS ZONES,” and “THE CLUNKER AND RESIDENTIAL ZONING“ are going to be feedback sort after as well as; environment, heritage and character.

Will post feedback on the forum either tonight or tomorrow.
In the mean time this rain is welcome

Ben Ross - Talking Auckland's avatarTalking Southern Auckland

Attempt One using Shape Auckland Housing Simulator

 

Auckland Council has released today an interactive housing simulator for YOU to experiment around with in how you as a theoretical Auckland Unitary Plan planner would fit in those extra 400,000 new dwellings for those one million extra people over the next thirty odd years. You can find the simulator HERE!

 

So I decided to play around with it and follow through my idea of the housing mix for Auckland in line with my submission to the Auckland Plan which called for 60% development in Brownfield Land (often intensification) and 40% in new Greenfield sites. This is what I got as I went through the process:

 

Stage One – How You Are Introduced to the Simulator

 

You can see the sliders which controls what housing goes where, the total you are giving and how many short or surplus…

View original post 680 more words