Blog Update

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Updates Irregular, also will be away

 

With me settling into my role as full-time stay at home dad with our 14 week old daughter, Talking Blog posts will be a bit scatty as I settle in to the domestic dad role and establish new routines. I still have a few posts and series in the pipeline that will trickle out over the next month so there is definitely no shortage of material.

I will also be away from Friday until next Tuesday joining up with the rest of the wider family for a reunion in Tauranga. Blog posts will be limited however, if Auckland Transport does send through the rest of the Local Government Official Information and Meetings Act requests in the duration I will do my best to get them up when possible.

 

Also thanks for your messages of support and encouragement yesterday after I filed my Resigned from The Party post yesterday. Needless to say it is refreshing to step back from Central Politics while it is in the state it is in. However, my involvement for Local Politics remains.

So again my thanks to you all.

 

Fairfax Ipsos poll late August 2014

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Interesting swings occuring

dpf's avatarcuriablog

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.5%

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (-4.3%)
  • Labour 26.1% (+3.6%)
  • Green 11.8% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 2.2% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 2.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 3
  • NZ First…
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 52/123 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

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Poll of Polls update – 28 August 2014

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jononatusch's avatarOccasionally Erudite Publications

3News Reid Research released their latest poll last night, and it’s good news for almost everyone but the major parties.

National are down 2.5% to 45%. That’s the danger zone – if NZ First is over 5% and National is on just 45% or thereabouts, then the odds are that Winston Peters holds the balance of power.

Labour also fall, down 2.6% to 26.4%. It’s another poll result showing Labour getting less than their abysmal 2011 result, which will be scaring the hell out of a few list MPs.

With both National and Labour falling in this Reid Research poll and the last Herald Digipoll, you’d have to assume that Dirty Politics is having an effect, possibly tarring both major parties with the same brush and squeezing policy out of the debate.

The Greens rise 0.5% to 13.5% – a good result, but they’ll be disappointed they haven’t picked up more of the vote…

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Progress from the Long Term Plan 2015-2025 Debate

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Some Transport Projects Get the Chop, Others Stay

 

Some of the transport options remaining in the 2015-2025 LTP pic.twitter.com/86P6k4QGn3

 

That is from the Long Term Plan 2015-2025 presentation which is being given at the moment by the Mayor.

This list apparently shows capital funding options remaining for the above projects through the 2015-2025 Long Term Plan (still subject to consultation and final ratification).

So Walters Road gets grade separated, Takanini gets a new library (and possibly station if the developer at Takanini Village still wants to build it), and two new stations at Paerata and Drury. But some causalities were: Pukekohe Electrification, PENLINK, and a pile of roading projects.

The Mayor has stated rate rises will be at an average of 2.5% this year and moves to 3.5% after that. He has stated Council can go higher if the public want it. Councillor Cameron Brewer has said this LTP is an encouraging document to work on.

 

More as it comes to hand

 

Dirty politics on the Royal Society fluoride review

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Reblogged without comment as it keeps coming up in submissions to various Council Plans including the Unitary Plan

Ken's avatarOpen Parachute

Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge

In Anti-fluoride activists unhappy about scientific research I related how local anti-fluoride propagandists were busy rubbishing the Royal Society of NZ  fluoride review – even before it was released. Now that it is released (see Health Effects of Water Fluoridation: a Review of the Scientific Evidence) they have gone into a manic mode – launching press releases and facebook attacks. Given that some of these were launched within hours of the report’s release these propagandists hadn’t bother actually reading the report itself.

These attacks are typical of anti-science people when confronted with scientific information undermining their strong beleifs. As we say in New Zealand, these critics “play the man rather than the ball.” But first, let’s deal with  the single criticism of the scientific content of the report – the question of the mechanisms of the beneficial roles of fluoride for teeth.

The old “topical” argument

The anti-fluoride brigade has a thing…

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3 News Reid Research poll late August 2014

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I have asked DPF for some alternatives such as
Maori Party not back in Parliament
Hone not on Parliament thus no Mana Internet Party.

Will let you know the numbers
But right now it is not good

dpf's avatarcuriablog

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 20 to 25 August 2014 approx

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 26.3% (-2.6%)
  • Green 13.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.3% (nc)
  • Maori 0.7%  (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 6.3% (+1.7%)
  • Conservative 4.6% (+2.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/123 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 3 = 53/123 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ…

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So is National’s campaign “slick” or “a mess”?

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Perception is key.
As is Spin Control
Something I have said all before

jononatusch's avatarOccasionally Erudite Publications

Political punditry is definitely a matter of perspective. If you were a Fox News commentator during the last US presidential election, Mitt Romney’s campaign was a dead cert winner; if you were Nate Silver, Obama was going to romp home. (Of course, if you rely on Fox News for your political commentary, you probably deserve to be duped.)

Here in New Zealand, in Election 2014, I’ve just read two very different accounts of the two main parties’ campaigns – Andrea Vance’s ‘The slick and the dead calm‘ and Tim Watkin’s ‘If this was Labour we’d be calling it a mess‘. On the one hand, Ms Vance describes National’s campaign as “slick, polished and organised to the last detail”, while Labour’s “is ad hoc, chaotic and oddly low-energy”.

Her description of Team Key?

National leader John Key whizzed his way across Auckland on Monday, barely pausing for a…

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