National’s Road to Redemption

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Long, slow and painful but can be done

 

Disclaimer: I am a member of the National Party and have been since 2003.

 

And so on the back of the Prime Minister’s disastrous interview on Radio NZ this morning (Listen to the full interview with John Key on Morning Report) (also see my Muldoon quip below) which got even worse after contradicting claims some 90mins later on TVNZ one would think how National would up right itself and get going again. Oh John Key insinuating the All Blacks would look at the Wallabies Game Plan (we have the next Bledisole Match at Eden Park this weekend) if the coach left it on the table is rather off-key!

 

The situation we have in relation to the Colmar Brunton poll shows the following (which is of high note):

  1. 12% said they are more likely to vote in this years election (so we could see an increased voter turn out from the predicted 74%)
  2. 4% said the Hager revelations would be giving National a more positive outlook
  3. 9% said the Hager revelations would give National a more negative outlook

Now an increased voter turnout is more likely to hurt National and benefit the Centre Left in any means. But a net 5% negative swing against National (especially if this translates out on election day) is fatal to the Party wanting its third term. I have theorised that even a negative 2% swing against National (so minus the revelations) would be harmful especially if the Conservatives get around 4% and not into Parliament (so that 4% is a wasted vote that could have gone to National).

It is yet to be seen if the negative 2% or 5% swing will happen, or whether voter turn out gets above the predicted 74%.

 

Now then in light of the Hager revelations and the Prime Minister’s double shocker today the question is can National redeem itself in the eyes of the electorate? The answer is technically yes but some stuff will need to be done including some blood-letting.

Before I go on these are my own thoughts and opinions

Road and Train to redemption

  1. Demote Judith Collins to the back bench if National wins a third term and “retire her” at the 2017 elections. Now this is going to cause a spat and some serious bloodletting in National between the Tea Party faction and the combined Liberal and Conservative factions. However, it should be short, sharp and fast with long damage negligible to the Party in the long-term (post 2017). Once the Tea Party faction has been “retired” from the Party the Liberal and traditional Conservative factions will band together with mops, and buckets full of water and chlorine bleach. to clean up the mess. Sure it will take three years but nothing of great benefit was achieved overnight.
  2. Have the candidates, incumbent MP’s, the Young Nats and Steven Joyce continue running the lines as they are now (whether you agree with them or not). There is a reason behind this I shall explain in a moment
  3. Tell Bill English to open the cheque book and spread some pork around. Everyone loves a bit of pork and National is going to need just a little bit of the wonder stuff to lend some assistance. Now nothing too fancy with the pork and I see National have been busy with the pork spreading in the last few hours as I write this post. It is the pork I will be referring to.
    1. The Urban Cycleways announcement is a nice piece of “pork.” Not as bold as The Greens but remember National are trying to be touted as ‘Fiscal Conservatives’ here
    2. AMETI Stage II (the Bus way from Panmure Interchange (where Stage 1 is) to Pakuranga Town Centre got a $29m boost from NZTA and Auckland Transport to advance design concepts for the bus way. Now I was talking on Twitter today about AMETI Stages One and Two stalling and National needing to give it a tickle. Well National just did with Stage II
    3. Continue to play up the significance of the Southern Motorway upgrade which is well received in Southern Auckland. The BCR alone was going above 4 (think it was 6.3 from memory) so it is deemed a worthy investment on the BCR side alone. Now I know I have sent an email on the bus lanes for the Takanini Interchange but for the moment this is about National not me
    4. DO NOT fast track the City Rail Link any earlier than 2017. Council has not got itself sorted (recent blog posts picked that up) and the recent research paper commissioned by the Ministry of Transport (that I am covering in a series) also raises some issues with the Auckland Plan (which influences the CRL). From my own analysis (as a Geographer) I would review the Auckland Plan with a fine tooth comb before advancing the City Rail Link around the 2017/18 date. However, if National wants to play the Fiscal Muppetry card and bring the CRL forward to immediate then they might as well do the full works and build both the North Shore Line and Airport Line at the same time.
    5. Upgrade a rail line whether it be the North Auckland Line to Northland or the East Main Trunk Line from Port of Tauranga to Hamilton. Quick win here and will keep businesses and electorates happy
  4. Find a better Media Trainer for the PM NOW
  5. C&R need a full gut out and rebuilt if it either wants to contest Auckland Council elections properly again (most likely 2019 at this rate). The Hager revelations are too damaging on Guilty by Association charges at the minimum.
  6. Most of all stay on message

 

So the question is why the above especially in relation to bullet points two and three?

First of all bullet point two is for keeping Party Members and traditional voters from swinging. Remember we have a net 5% negative swing potential already and we don’t need traditional supporters or Party Members going for a swing because they are seriously pissed off with this entire affair (and believe me they are pissed off). So what Joyce and co are doing is soothing the traditionalists which is needed for if they bail well yeah we don’t need a repeat of Labour’s factionalisation.

Bullet point three is about the Pork. At the end of the day we all like the Pork when sprinkled our way. Now overdoing the pork will blow out of the water National’s fiscal conservative mantra that Bill English has nurtured (whether it be reality or perception). Overdoing the pork would also seem overtly cynical in vote-buying. But just a wee bit of pork there and there (the $212m regional roads package was an example of NOT HOW to do the pork)  would keep the traditional voters happy as well as the swinging voters as well. It would go some distance in negating that 5% negative swing that is threatening at the moment.

 

Now this is not a comprehensive list and most likely that I have mentioned it someone in the opposition would negate it 😛

But at the end of the day National does not need another performance like it received this morning from the PM. Performances it does need to receive were like universal reception on the Urban Cycleways policy announcement. Sure not as far as some would like but most were pretty happy that it is something (of worth).

Thoughts and comments are welcome. Trolls are not.

 

That Colmar Brunton poll

 

Council Cutting the Spin

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Well reductions in the Communications, PR and Marketing Department

 

In the continued drive for efficiencies and cost control (despite an OPEX surplus at $212 million on the last set of audited figures) the Marketing Department is next up on the blocks (after Planning) for the “review.”

From Radio NZ and Todd Niall

Auckland Council cuts marketing budget

Updated at 6:56 am today

 

The council has cut 38 jobs and brought more work in-house to save $4.3 million this year, and slightly more after that.

The spending on communications and marketing will fall to nearly $8.5 million.

The council said work has been centralised, and around $1.5 million saved through less outsourcing.

The re-structuring of communications and marketing is the largest cut from a series of reviews that have been underway. It has made 109 other staff redundant over the past year.

A larger review is nearly complete in the chief planning officer’s department which employs 538 staff.

Auckland Council has gone on the front foot, announcing the cuts in communications and marketing, 10 days before it unveils the first version of its proposed 10 year budget.

While there is no direct link between the two, the council is keen to portray itself as being rigorous with internal spending, before beginning debate on how much should be spent around the city.

The council has lifted its target for efficiency savings to $240 million a year, as it begins the task of setting the 10-year budget, called the Long Term Plan.

That may bring new charges for Aucklanders and a multi-billion dollar cut over the next decade, to the previously-forecast level of spending on new assets.

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Source: http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/252342/auckland-council-cuts-marketing-budget

 

You can hear report Todd Niall’s take on here:

 

I will be interesting to see what has happened to the Planning Department after their review. We shall know the results next month.

 

Electric Trains Start on the Manukau Line – Monday [updated]

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A delay but there

 

It seems Monday the 18th the Electric Trains will start running on the Manukau Line in the off-peak periods as part of that limited roll out. They were meant to start plying the Manukau Line on the 13th but that never happened.

 

September/October is when the Electric Train fleet should be fully replacing the diesels on the Manukau Line both peak and off-peak. Or will they?

 

With the Long Term Plan 2015-2025 budget cuts from Auckland Council delaying the purchase of more Electric Trains (beyond the 57 already on order) to beyond 2025 will we see our diesels still plying the network post 2015 when the Electrics are fully rolled out? Something yet to be seen as the LTP debates continue.

 

[Update from Auckland Transport]

A second rail line going electric

15/08/2014 04:18 p.m.

The roll-out of electric trains in Auckland steps up next week with the introduction of the new trains on the Manukau Line.

Initially electric trains will run on some off-peak services, they will be introduced to all services over the next month.

Auckland Transport’s Chief Operations Officer Greg Edmonds says the new trains have been very popular since their introduction on the Onehunga Line in April but with any transition we should be prepared for “teething problems.”

“We want to ensure our customers who use the trains to Manukau are getting a reliable service so we will be gradually increasing the number of electric trains over the next month.”

Meanwhile, testing continues across the rail network following an intermittent power fault which saw some Onehunga services affected. Mr Edmonds stresses there are no safety issues associated with the fault.

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Source: https://at.govt.nz/about-us/news-events/a-second-rail-line-going-electric/

 

 

On bloggers, corruption and honour

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Quoting:
On Bloggers and Journalists

Please be aware, though, that not all bloggers and journalists are of the same grimy stripe: Some are honest and honourable.

You may not agree with what we write, but we are genuine and up front about what we believe and why.

We do not always get things right, but we own up when we are wrong.

You can disagree with us without fearing retaliation, because we believe in honest discussion and debate.

And we believe it is not too much to expect others, including our government, to uphold those same standards.

Talking Auckland has gotten it wrong before. When that I happened I both made those personal apologies up front and sure that I wouldnt repeat the mistake that got me in strife in the first place.

Yes I can be controversial and hard, but I also give praise and credit where it is due. Just ask Auckland Transport 😉
But at the end of the day I try to uphold to my high standards when blogging. A pity certain other compatriots can not thus we all get tarred

Save Our Schools NZ's avatarSave Our Schools NZ

no to corruption

I’m glad that at last there is a focus on the low-level, hateful, dishonest work of Cameron Slater.  He is an embarrassment to bloggers and journalists everywhere.

I am glad the focus has turned to him allegedly being paid to share ghost-written blog posts done by others such as the tobacco lobbyists where he just add his name to the end and pretends they are by him.  

For money.  

Lots of money.

I am glad people are finally being forced to consider just how far and how deep his spiderweb goes into government.

I am glad the mainstream media has been forced, in some cases at least, to confront the reality that bloggers and journalists of this ilk are unreliable at best and, at worst, dangerous to democracy and free speech.

The irony is immense

This is not just whimsical pondering from me.  I was “oiled” myself.  Thousands of the “Whale…

View original post 493 more words

Dirty Politics Summary

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Whatever your politics and style what we are seeing here is a rather interesting chill on our democracy.

I know when the Len Brown saga broke the amount of sleaze being fired across with beyond it by all means. The consequences went far above and beyond what the Mayor did, it went as far as acting as a paralysing force against the Council something only just recently the City has rid of (we are back to normal Council) politics.

Having been approached by opponent Palino last May to assist writing South Auckland policy (before walking away (I voted for Len by the way)) the aftermath of the election sent chills through me.

Chills insofar as the muck being fires from that pocket of the Centre Right in a game of win at all cost (usually this ends as MAD).

However, the City had a saving grace through the fact we were damn well lucky we had a Deputy Mayor who led the City through those dark periods something the opposition failed to realise then and still now. However, that opposition so to say will be served their beans in due time and their allies sullied by Association charges. Meaning the Centre Right have effectively neutered themselves in the 2016 elections.

Of note I have noticed Carrack Graham paying a bit more attention into Auckland Council affairs. This is something to watch carefully and closely.

Slater and Graham’s politics are not wanted in the Super City a 21st Century progressive and inclusive City