Auckland to hit two million by 2033 Statistics NZ yesterday releases information on population growth (or decline) projects through to 2043. They say: Sub National Population Projections 2013 Subnational … Continue reading 60% of Population Growth Through To 2043 to Happen in Auckland
Straight from Statistic NZ on the Census 2013 Data:
Auckland’s population grew by over 110,000 people since the 2006 Census, while Selwyn, Queenstown-Lakes, and Waimakariri were the fastest-growing districts in the country, Statistics New Zealand said today.
The 2013 Census figures, released today, show the Auckland region had a census usually resident population count of 1.42 million, up about 8 percent since 2006. Just over half of New Zealand’s population growth since the last census occurred in Auckland.
“All 21 local board areas in Auckland increased in population between 2006 and 2013. Waitemata, Upper Harbour, Rodney, Howick, and Franklin grew particularly fast,” Government Statistician Liz MacPherson said.
“The census counts show that population change has not been uniform across New Zealand. This largely reflects the movement of people within New Zealand as well as the influence of international migration.”
New Zealand gained 7,000 people a year from migration between 2006 and 2013 – less than a third of the 23,000 gained per year between 2001 and 2006.
“After Auckland, Nelson was the next-fastest-growing region, followed by Waikato. Southland turned around a declining population, growing by over 2,000 people in the seven years since the last census,” Ms MacPherson said.
Growth in districts and cities
Overall, 47 of the 67 territorial authority (council) areas grew in population over the past seven years. The three fastest rates of population growth in district or city council areas were:
These three areas were also the fastest-growing between 2001 and 2006.
“Around Canterbury we’ve seen that although Christchurch city’s population is lower than at the 2006 Census, the overall region has grown. That’s partly because some people from Christchurch have moved to surrounding districts like Waimakariri and Selwyn, and even further afield to Ashburton and Hurunui. So they’ve left the city but not the region,” Ms MacPherson said.
The fastest-growing district in the North Island was Carterton, which increased 16 percent to over 8,000 people. Populations declined nearly 13 percent in Ruapehu district, just over 8 percent in Kawerau district, and 7 percent in Wairoa district.
Census counts differ from population estimates
The census counts for regions and territorial authority areas are typically lower than the latest population estimates, which are produced annually. This is because the estimates include New Zealand residents temporarily overseas at the time of the census, and an adjustment for people missed by the census.
More population information coming in December 2013
“We are releasing today’s information two months ahead of schedule. We know that many organisations and people rely on population information from the census to make good decisions about services and infrastructure. More detailed information will be available in December, including data on ethnicity, sex, age, and dwellings,” Ms MacPherson said.
New Zealand’s census usually resident population count was 4,242,048 in 2013, up from 4,027,947 in 2006.
Update: From Statistics NZ – The Table Showing Population Change by Local Board Area
I will do a full post on what the Census means for Auckland, the City Rail Link and the Unitary Plan once I return back from Town Hall this afternoon.
Stay tuned everyone
As soon as the preliminary Census Data findings were released yesterday did Statistics Minister (who would oversee the Census) drop a rant about Auckland’s population growth and use it as a tool to bash the City Rail Link and Unitary Plan.
You can see the Minister’s rant in part here:
Census calls rail loop into question
By Isaac Davison @Isaac_Davison 5:30 AM Tuesday Oct 8, 2013
Reduced growth figures suggest revision of Auckland’s infrastructure plans needed, claims Statistics Minister.
Statistics Minister Maurice Williamson says new Census data which show that New Zealand population growth has halved since the last Census could prompt revision of Auckland’s infrastructure plans such as an increase in high-rise apartments and the construction of a city rail loop.
But Auckland Council is standing by its plans for growth, saying that Auckland is expected to grow faster than the rest of the country.
The council’s planning for the next 30 years is based on the prediction that the number of residents will grow by 1 million.
Mr Williamson said the first Census data in seven years indicated that this projection was far too high.
Statistics New Zealand figures released yesterday showed that on Census night, there were 214,101 more people in New Zealand than at the previous Census in 2006. This meant the population had grown by 31,000 a year over the past seven years, compared to 58,000 a year in the previous period of 2001 to 2006.
“This is a huge surprise – bigger than Ben Hur,” Mr Williamson said. “It’s nearly half the growth rate that everyone had been basing their historic numbers on.
…
Already debunked all that twice now and not really willing to do it a third time.
What I will post however is two “replies” to the Minister stepping into an area that he should clearly not:
From the Deputy Mayor and Chair of the Auckland Plan Committee (that oversees the Unitary Plan) Penny Hulse:
Rule number one: Ministers of Statistics are not meant to use statistics for political purposes.
Rule number two: Ministers should use the correct information. Williamson doesn’t realise that the figures used for the Unitary plan are based on Stats NZ forward projections. These figures will not be available until next year. The census data as presented is not directly relevant to the plan. It is prudent to plan for growth and as all the experts are saying, we have so far exceeded growth projection since 1991. If growth slows, so does development, no problem….we still need to plan a city around good transport and affordable housing choices.
From an Activist and Commentator:
It could be possibly understand that Maurice Williamson has annoyed several of his colleagues by using his position as Statistics Minister to wade into the mayoral debate to help John Palino, and take a swing at Len Brown.
Williamson has effectively questioned the viability of the Government’s agreement with the Council over the City Rail Link, which the Government wanted (the issue) taken off the table (Unless it wants to give the Centre-Left free ammunition for continuous free hits that should not need to have happened). Even more annoyingly for the Government, Williamson’s clumsy decision to take a swing at Brown using dodgy figures.
As Williamson knows, immigration flows are cyclical. In the last three years, New Zealand has had low migration because we have been at the bottom of the migration cycle. All the current projections are that migration is picking up again, quickly, as happens in any cycle. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9071532/Migration-boom-could-defeat-home-loan-restrictions
It is dishonest of Williamson to suggest that long-term, New Zealand migration flows, and therefore Auckland population levels, will remain at constant lows. Williamson might be regretting that he bottled his opportunity to go after the Mayoralty himself when he had the chance, but he needs to remember that he’s a Government Minister, part of a Government that has to work with New Zealand’s largest city, and not Palino’s campaign sponsor.
I have relayed those points as I agree with them. Williamson is interfering as a Minister of the Crown in Auckland’s Local Elections with his rather dim-witted rant. Already Auckland’s voting turnout is at (as of now) 22.42% compared to 33.8% in 2010 we don’t need a Minister’s rant and incorrect information putting people off – we already have enough of that from aspects of the media and some candidates. Speaking of which I see the Main Stream Media are quoting Williamson without fact-checking – typical…
Furthermore Williamson’s rant can put a chill on consumer and business confidence if we see mucking around and interference. While iPredict does show Len on a 96.9% chance of winning mayor for a second term thus Williamson’s rant as possibly as much of a side issue as berms/verges, again we do not need any more crap being thrown around giving further risk to chilling voters, consumers and businesses.
Let me, the people, voters and businesses decide in Auckland decide what they want with their elected representatives for Auckland. Not some Minister who should have been put out to pasture a long time ago…
Future Planning & Reminder on Statistics One thing taught rather well to Geography students is that there are: “Lies, Damned Lies and there are Statistics.” With the amount … Continue reading What I Would Like to See in the Operative Unitary Plan – Southern Rural Boundary and Still Debunking Census Myths
With Statistics New Zealand announcing some preliminary news around Census 2013 – National Population Growth, I have noticed the usual dissenters already cropping up.
Here are two examples:
From Twitter:
Maurice Williamson (a member of the current Government) says unitary plan wrong as NZ population growing slower. Has he done the stats on people leaving provinces to go to AKL?
And from Facebook:
The first census figures are out and here’s what the statistics boss had to say…
“This means that, on average, the population has grown by about 31,000 people per year since the last census in 2006. This was slower growth than between 2001 and 2006, when the population grew by an average of about 58,000 per year,” Government Statistician Liz MacPherson said.
So much for Len’s vision to cater for 1,000,000 more people.
At this rate of growth there will be an increase in population by 2040 of less than 900,000 for the whole of New Zealand – so Auckland might attract about 60% of the total, about 540,000 – just over half of the Auckland Plan figure, Time for some Auckland planners to depart the scene. This is justification for my early call to hold Unitary Plan until census results available.
(Note; David Thorton’s Facebook post was made in “public” mode where everyone can see it. Talking Auckland does not copy over Facebook posts that are not in “public” mode without prior permission of the user in question)
One minor detail folks:
| 11 Mar 2014 | NZ.Stat: Population | Detailed tables that can be modified to contain only the variables the user requires, including geographic breakdowns to territorial authority area and often area unit level. This module has information such as age, sex, internal migration, marital status, and number of children born. |
Source: http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/about-2013-census/release-schedule.aspx
Yes October 15 we can find out Auckland’s actual population for the 2013 Census date and compare it to 2006 Census data. But the internal migration data of who is coming to Auckland from where-else in NZ in comparison to external migration and natural birth is something I would be keeping an eye on.
If the statistics show a strong trend towards Auckland then we will need to maintain the High Population Growth projections for the time being.
That means the Council at the time can review the population projects and alter the Unitary Plan as required. It means we can scale up or down the urban development as required from those review periods.
Much more prudent than holding off on the Unitary Plan – which would have greatly annoyed the Central Government highly. And much more prudent as it is easier to scale back from high projects with our planning then having to ramp up because we fell behind from the starting point. Example in ten years time in regards to the Southern Rural Boundary; if growth and migration into Auckland is high then more land within the RUB will need to be released with the possibility the RUB being extended. If the opposite occurs then the land release within the RUB can be slowed down with the possibility of the RUB being contracted. So for now lay the RUB down as it is as a middle road option so we have something to work with – then take it from there through the reviews.
March 2014 – when we can get a good look at what Auckland will be in for. For now let’s get the foundations laid while we can then take it from there.
Six month wait – ah well…
Note from Admin: More to hand as this was posted
Heaven’s sake I just wrote this post on debunking the Census Myth and Mayoral candidate Palino and is Deputy Mayoral aspirant Brewer go full force in purporting that myth as seen here: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK1310/S00301/census-figures-demolish-len-browns-plans-for-auckland.htm
Where to start or not? Quite simply no point as everything I have said above debunks what those two are saying I have written posts in the past that also debunk the myths made out above.
What is more interesting is that I have just picked up this in regards to housing from Stuff:
The Government is set to make a “significant” housing announcement this week as Finance Minister Bill English warns that the Government is “serious” about reining in a rampant property market.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9253286/Govt-to-make-significant-housing-announcement
…
So let me see:
So I think (apart from Brown needing to sharpen up that finances pencil a bit) we are in Okay/Positive mode all things considered at the moment. For Auckland to have a major swing in regards to who is mayor and the make up of Council could upset both the Central Government and investment/growth opportunities here.
I leave you with the initial findings from Statistics New Zealand in regards to our population growth. It makes for some interesting reading with Auckland to pick up a new electorate seat and some pretty strong growth in parts of Auckland.
Source: Statistics NZ – http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/census_counts/NumberofElectoratesandElectoralPopulations_HOTP2013Census
Final Remarks: I am having some very interesting statistics and Geography discussions about the Census data at the moment. Interesting insights
Auckland – The De Facto City State? As I am writing this Statistics New Zealand is releasing the Census 2013 data. This data is critical not only for statistics … Continue reading Census Data Coming Out
How to Beat Food Prices And SAVE 30-50% OFF YOUR FOOD BILL! Seems the Herald and those with a lack of imagination or realism are having a whine … Continue reading Fruit and Vegetables
Talking Southern Auckland 