Council reruns the ACDC15 models and finds with alterations to the Unitary Plan more housing becomes viable to build
I was wondering when Auckland Council would rerun the Development Capacity Model through different scenarios of the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan given the first attempt was pretty much a failure (see: Unitary Plan Falls Very Short of Enabling Those 400,000 Homes Needed by 2041).
From Auckland Council:
New model shows increase in number of houses possible under Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan.
Auckland Council has used the new Development Capacity Model to reveal how many houses could be built under the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan (PAUP).
The Development Capacity model was developed by a group of independent experts at the request of the Panel who wanted to understand how much of the housing growth enabled by the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan could be actually developed in today’s market.
In July the Panel released data which had been generated by this new model. That data indicated that a total of 64,400 houses (excluding Housing NZ properties) would be commercially feasible to build under today’s market conditions when the Unitary Plan became operative in 2016.
Since receiving the data, the council has re-run the model inputting the suggested changes to the residential zone provisions so as to understand what impact those changes may have on that number of feasible houses.
The results have revealed that the suggested changes to the residential provisions of the PAUP have resulted in more houses being feasible than previously thought.
The key results are that the changes have resulted in a 56% increase in plan enabled dwellings and a 140% increase in dwellings commercially feasible. This means the number of dwellings that are commercially feasible today stands at 154,000 (excluding Housing New Zealand properties).
Deputy Mayor Penny Hulse says “This model helps us test how changing the rules impacts on commercial feasible development capacity. It indicates that the council’s suggested changes to the residential zoning provisions under the proposed unitary plan will have a significant effect on the number of dwellings that can feasibly be built.
“If those changes are adopted next year we are looking at is 13 – 17 years’ worth of growth and that shows the proposed changes to residential zone provisions can have a positive effect,” she says.
“It also means developers can have confidence to invest in supplying more houses which Auckland desperately needs.”
Over the coming months the Development Capacity Model will be one of the inputs into the PAUP process. It will be a relevant factor to consider when the council reviews the submissions to rezone many thousands of properties across Auckland. The re-zoning hearings are scheduled to start in early 2016.
At the conclusion of the growth hearing the Independent Hearings Panel directed Council experts and experts from a number of submitters (including Auckland 2040, Housing New Zealand, New Zealand Institute of Architects and Property Council of New Zealand) to develop a methodology for modelling the ‘feasibility’ of the development that is ‘enabled’ under the Unitary Plan.
Auckland Council has used the new Development Capacity Model to reveal how many houses could be built under the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan (PAUP). If the changes to the residential zone rules suggested by the Council to the Auckland Unitary Plan Independent Hearings Panel were adopted.
Analysis excludes rural zones, urban greenfields, non-residential business zones.
I hope Auckland Council releases that new modelling data before their Primary Evidence for the Residential Zones in the Unitary Plan comes out on the 8th of September so submitters like myself can have a good hard look at it – please.
That wanting of a good look is also further stressed given that in the original ACDC15 report nine of the ten Metropolitan Centres were deemed unviable economically to build apartments and/or terraced housing despite the Metropolitan Centres (and possible the Super Metropolitan Centres if inserted into the Unitary Plan) being the next tier behind the City Centre zone to take intensification.
I will wait until the Council’s primary evidence for the Residential Zones is out (and hopefully the new modelling data before that) before commenting further.