#UnitaryPlan Panel Issues Instructions for Demand and Supply Estimates across all Zones. UPDATED

Preparation work for Topic 081 – Residential Zones

 

I picked up yesterday from the Auckland Unitary Plan Hearings website that the Independent Hearings Panel has instructed Auckland Council to proceed with demand and supply estimates across both the Residential and Business Zones.

You can read the memo here:

 

Council’s memo from the November 3 is here:

 

Basically the Panel is asking for work to be done in preparation to Topic 081 – Rezoning when submitters, Council and the Panel debate the spatial extent of the respective Residential and Business Zones:

Commercial and Industrial Capacity:

The estimates of supply are to be based on the Council’s proposed zone rules as presented to the Panel in Topic 059/60/62/63 and as modified in its closing comments on those Topics, and using the spatial application of those zones that are proposed by Council for the 081 Topic.
The Panel requests that the output from this work include:
– An estimate of demand for residential capacity (expressed as dwelling numbers) throughout the Auckland region, for the period to 2026 and to 2041.
– An estimate of overall supply of residential capacity (in tabular form along the lines provided by Dr Fairgray on 28 October) and a breakdown of that supply in terms of each type of zone (e.g. Centres, THAB, MHU, Mixed Use, etc.).
– An estimate of the “years of supply” that would be enabled and available if the Plan is made operative in 2016, and at 2026, and the trend in that metric in the intervening years.
– Presentation of supply in the form of “heat maps” or similar (e.g. as at 2026 and 2041) to enable easy visualisation of the spatial spread of supply.
– A supporting document that sets out the method used to estimate demand and supply, with any significant diverging views and their implications for the estimates recorded in an appendix (along the lines of the approach used in the July report)
The Panel intends to use the outputs from this work to assess the extent to which the proposed Plan would be adequate to meet forecast demand for residential capacity for the period to 2026, and to 2041.

……..

Source: Memorandum as embedded above

 

I am producing a memorandum myself to the Panel and Council asking them to consider my own zones given that:

  • per the 013 RPS Urban Growth – Expert Conference Outcome Report – Residential Developable Capacity for Auckland report[1] said that the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan as it stands would only allow 11%[2] of the 400,000 proposed dwellings needed in the operative Auckland Plan, and that if you look on the maps of that report (page 66 (of 69) onwards) only Takapuna Metropolitan Centre was deemed viable or rather “ready” for residential development. The other nine Metropolitan Centres were deemed not viable to undertake residential construction and it has to be asked is the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan causing that situation?[1] https://www.scribd.com/doc/272429202/013-RPS-Urban-Growth-Expert-Conference-Outcome-Report-Residential-Developable-Capacity-for-Auckland[2] Page 5 of the report as linked on footnote 42

…….

Source: Primary Evidence – https://www.scribd.com/doc/274254208/Ben-Ross-1606-2-Centres-Zones-051-Primary-Evidence

 

We wont know the results from the Unitary Plan Panel memorandum as the Council is not due to report back until January 26 next year when their main evidence is due for 081 – Rezoning.

But it will be interesting to see if Council got their zone spatial applications right because the Panel was hinting it has not.

 

My Memo of Reply back to the Panel and Council on the Supply Estimates

 

 

Hobsonville Point Zones
Hobsonville Point Zones

 

 

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