Could Japan Rail be the answer to viable inter-city services in the Golden Triangle?

Five days ago (from when this article was written) I had posted the idea (technically reposted) of hourly inter-city passenger train services between Auckland to Hamilton, and every two hours out to Tauranga. I stated that we are not looking for Japan Bullet Train style services of 320km/h but more to the 160km/h services that run between Japanese cities as standard, and the TILT train in Queensland. The reason 160km/h is that both the TILT Train, and Japan standard intercity services run on the same narrow gauge of 1,067mm as rail does in New Zealand. No expensive laying down of broad-gauge rail tracks for high-speed rail, but can bring our existing narrow-gauge rail up to speed – as it were.

Previous Idea goes LARGE in 2024

When the idea was first floated by Greater Auckland in 2017 and I shared it into LinkedIn it got a somewhat muted reaction across the spectrum but Te Huia our current limited Hamilton to Auckland service would eventuate on a 5-year trial (about to expire). Thus, when I reposted the idea into LinkedIn in 2024, I expected the same muted response. I did not expect the absolute blow up it did receive and the support from right across the spectrum from progressives through to conservatives. As of this article the post had received:

• 348,000 impressions
• 5,141 reactions
• 83 reposts
• 63 comments (I had comments restricted to Connections Only for moderation purposes as a single Roads First comment would illustrate)

2017 when this idea was first shared might have received 5% of that and that was with comments open to all.

The original post is down below and the link is also here: Inter City Services: Auckland-Hamilton-Tauranga

While I did mention the general concept and basic staging, I did not mention the cost nor bringing in the world masters of transit – Japan to do the scheme on a multi-decade concession basis. Something I will cover now at a high-level.

Staging (with an extra note on (1))

1. Start with getting the services to sustain 80km/h on the existing network to Hamilton (Tauranga needs the Kaimai Tunnel duplicated for passenger services. So, start duplicating the tunnel as it benefits freight as well as a Kiwi-Rail led project under the National Land Transport Fund)
2. Duplicate the tracks out the back of Meremere through the Wetlands, as well as the bridge at Ngaruawahia. At the same time start electrifying the tracks between Pukekohe and Hamilton. This would allow the trains to reach 120km/h and services starting to Tauranga as the Kaimai Tunnel duplication should be completed in (1)
3. Once (2) is done we can bring the trains up to their full speed of 160km/h which is the same as the Tilt Trains in Queensland

---

Multi-Criteria Analysis and initial costs for Auckland to Hamilton services

In order to have the Auckland to Hamilton inter-city services viable by the time we hit and complete Stage 2 the stations in the Waikato would need to be brought up to scratch. With the existing Te Huia looking to extend its services to more station in the Waikato I searched out for a multi-criteria Analysis to see what the costs would be to bring at least some of the stations up to scratch for Te Huia.

A Business Case with an MCA was done for Waikato Regional Council, and Waikato District Council* on the benefits and costs of bringing Tuakau, Pookeno, and Te Kawahata stations up to speed for the existing Te Huia while noting the trains would need to be faster than they currently are (around 70km/h). This Business Case would assist in extrapolating costs out to bring ALL the stations required for hourly services to Hamilton (and start every two-hours to Tauranga) up to scratch by the time again we hit and complete Stage 2 and the trains are moving at 120km/h.

*Note: I am currently working for Waikato District Council as a Senior Planner and this shown in my LinkedIn profile. The inter-city idea is independent of my work with WDC and if this idea were to proceed as a full public, or as a Public-Private Partnership, all standard procedures in planning, procurement, and any conflict-of-interest management would apply. Simply put I am floating the inter-city idea out of my own free-time at zero cost.

---

The Initial Cost for Auckland to Hamilton Hourly Services

Whether Auckland to Hamilton hourly inter-city services is done as a full public venture or as a Public-Private Partnership (my personal preference) there are CAPEX costs to bring the infrastructure up to scratch (allowing for 120km/h services).

So, let’s cut straight to the mustard and give the total for just Auckland to Hamilton with trains every hour both ways running at 120km/h or the L1 Line Speed allowed for passenger services.

Total Cost: $1.243 billion – or the price of ONE of the THIRTEEN Roads of National Significance aka 4 lane highways the current National-led regime wish to build.

What does $1.243b get you

1. Bringing Tuakau, Pookeno, Te Kawahata, Huntly, Ngāruawāhia and Hamilton Stations up to scratch including necessary interchanges with other modes, and interfaces with wider urban areas: $103 million (which is double what the Business Case had for the relevant stations but I took their sums and doubled them right off the bat given NZ’s case for mis budgeting estimates)
2. Duplication of the rail bridge at Ngāruawāhia: $30m including two level crossing upgrades
3. Third Platform at Puhinui Station on the Third Main: $10m (cost shared with Auckland Transport)
4. $500m for rolling stock. This would consist of a diesel/electric hybrid that can run both on the wires at Auckland (and eventually Hamilton) and off the wires to Tauranga. Passenger capacity is 500 with 400 in Commuter Class, and 100 in Premier Class. Also, luggage and bike compartments needed.
5. $300m for depot in the Waikato and the HQ
6. $300m for duplication of the single track out the back of Meremere (which also includes foundational work for electrification in that stretch)

For full electrification to Hamilton:

• $600m

All up if I include electrification and we should the total is $1.843 billion which is the price of 1.5 Roads of National Significance.

Services to Tauranga

The extra amount to allow for services to Tauranga would be:

1. $1 billion for a duplicate Kaimai Tunnel (should be borne by the Public Purse although a private operator for passenger services can pay towards it through track access fees as part of their concession)
2. $100m to bring the existing tunnel up to scratch effectively allow dual main operations with both tunnels
3. $500m to bring the East Coast Main Trunk Line up to speed to support the trains including more passing loops (add another $500m for full duplication – a cost that should be borne by Kiwi Rail given it benefits freight)
4. $100m for new stations including Morrinsville, Tauranga and Mount Maunganui
5. $50m for stabling depot at Mt Maunganui
6. $100m for additional rolling stock (and allowance for extra services in peak-on-peak conditions)

Total Costs for Tauranga services (not including full duplication): $1.85 billion

Grand Total for Auckland-Hamilton-Tauranga: $3,693,000,000 or the price of around 2.5 Roads of National Significance from National

Note: Caution with the costs as some of the benefits of it spill over into freight as well by allowing more and faster freight trains on those two respective lines. So any track or tunnel upgrades need to bear this in mind as well especially if a PPP for passenger is to be considered.

---

Enter Japan

$3.7 BILLION for passenger services and better freight services on a 100-year asset timeframe is extraordinarily VALUE FOR MONEY compared to 4 lane highways of the same value but with 50-year asset timeframes (let alone emissions, congestion, and the efficiencies of rail over roads for long distance passenger and freight movements (reductions of deaths and serious injuries on the road, productivity boosts, energy efficiency of steel wheels on steel tracks compared to rubber wheels on oil-based asphalt)). I have not included tourism benefits nor benefits to land around the stations for subsequent Transit-Oriented Developments either.

But New Zealand is not very great at these sorts of large projects in terms of planning, procurement, construction nor operations. Look at IREX (the ferries), the Waikato Expressway and Transmission Gully repairs, and other large civic projects.

So why not bring in the world masters of transit especially rail transit: JAPAN?!

Japan are world renowned for their rail systems (most are privately owned), their reliability, punctuality, and their rather large transit-oriented developments in, around, above and below their stations as well. We should bring in the masters for Auckland-Hamilton-Tauranga inter-city services due to high population growth allowing guaranteed patronage if you provide a decent enough rail offering.

In bringing in Japan for these Inter-City Services we will need to recognise these three things for them to even consider wanting to invest into inter-city services in the upper North Island:

1. Public Private Partnership and who bears what upfront costs especially with track upgrades also benefiting Kiwi Rail’s freight services
2. Japan likely to design, build, own and run these services on a multi-decade concession before the assets either return to public control or Japan continues on with them
3. How to handle any Transit Oriented Developments with both the stations and around the stations given it is the TOD’s that make the bulk of income and asset base for Japanese rail schemes. Do not get me wrong, some Japan-styled TODs would be most welcome into Aotearoa but if we are having Japan operate on a concession for the trains, how the TOD’s are handled especially when the concession runs out need to be factored in.

Once these three points along with the upfront costs are considered I see no reason why someone like Japan Rail on a 35 year concession operate an Auckland to Hamilton service, AND Auckland to Tauranga service. For the most part the OPEX and the majority of the CAPEX is kept off the Government’s books although arrangements for Tauranga service upgrades, and how we handle the benefits to the freight network.

Thoughts?

---

Original Post

No one is asking for a Japanese Bullet Train.

Ironically most inter-city services in Japan are serviced by standard trains rather than the famous Bullet Trains.

But what is being asked for is an actual intercity service running hourly between Auckland and Cambridge, a two-hour service to Tauranga, and a twice a day service between Auckland and Wellington.

And it would be done in three stages

1. Start with getting the services to sustain 80km/h on the existing network to Hamilton (Tauranga needs the Kaimai Tunnel duplicated for passenger services)
2. Duplicate the tracks out the back of Meremere through the Wetlands, as well as the bridge at Ngaruawahia. At the same time start electrifying the tracks between Pukekohe and Hamilton. This would allow the trains to reach 120km/h and services starting to Tauranga as the Kaimai Tunnel duplication should be completed in (1
3. Once (2) is done we can bring the trains up to their full speed of 160km/h which is the same as the Tilt Trains in Queensland

Service offering

With hourly and two hourly services respectively, each train has two classes onboard

Commuter Class (Economy) which I would to travel between Auckland and the Waikato where I work, Business Class (premier) for the tourists

And spice up the offering a bit given you don’t need to focus about every other driver on State Highways 1, 2, 27 and 29, nor the absolute appalling experience at Auckland Airport: show case our best lamb, our best wines and so on. Something Air NZ could never do on domestic runs (easily).

Finally make sure the car share, and/or national transit card, and/or ebikes are ready to go at the inter-city stations for seamless transfers.

Of course, freight benefits as well with new electric locomotives able to move at 120km/h over the 80 they do now

All more viable than a 4 lane highway