Well the announcement on Twitter certainly lit the place up yesterday and this morning. Never thought it would garner the response it did but it did.
Yesterday I had decided that after 11 years of membership I will no longer be a National Party member. The email when to National HQ in Wellington this morning stating that I have left the organisation as a Party member.
The email simply said:
I wish to inform the National Party that after being a member since 2003 I will be resigning my membership to the Party effective immediately
While it has been an adventure and I have met many new people along the way over the last 11 years I feel that the Party no longer presents my Social Liberal values nor is represents a Party that champions the Common Good.
The Hager saga has also shown National to be lacking in the skills required to navigate through a stormy patch that do come up from time to time.
The Prime Minister, and the Hon Judith Collins acting in obfuscation, stretching the truth and belittling the intelligence of the populace through their handling of the situation has also been a catalyst for me leaving the Party.
Until such time National is more in line with my own values of Social Liberalism and the Common Good, as well as Collins no longer being an MP I will remain a political freelancer, my vote always that of a Swing voter.
Despite the mess National has gotten itself in I wish no ill upon members and MP’s who do the hard yards out in the electorates. Sadly a few bad apples ruin it for everyone else.
Thus I wish the Party all the best into the future and in acknowledgement that we might meet up again some day. I do point out I have no desire in joining any other Party either.
All the best to the campaign
And thank you for the last 11 years.
With Kind Regards
So I am a political freelancer, my vote a swing vote at Central Level.
And the end of the day there is no point being part of a Political Party that does not line up with your own values (nor morals). Sadly a few bad apples ruined it and the rest is now as they say – history.
However this does not end my political involvement in any way. Well it does at Central Level as I step back but at Local Level I will still be definitely around (I can hear Auckland Transport saying “nuts” from here đ ). My affiliations at Auckland Council level do not change – that is I am still a supporter of the Deputy Mayor. But for now I take a break from Central Politics and turn all attention towards Auckland’s politics.
The blog will still be here, the posts and commentary will still be here, the pressers will still be posted when they come, the Local Government Official Information and Meetings Act request still filed, the presentations and live tweetings out of Committees continue.Â
As I said in the email though, I do wish the Party all the best in the future and in acknowledgement that we might meet up again one day.
Disclaimer: I am a member of the National Party and have been since 2003.
And so on the back of the Prime Minister’s disastrous interview on Radio NZ this morning (Listen to the full interview with John Key on Morning Report) (also see my Muldoon quip below) which got even worse after contradicting claims some 90mins later on TVNZ one would think how National would up right itself and get going again. Oh John Key insinuating the All Blacks would look at the Wallabies Game Plan (we have the next Bledisole Match at Eden Park this weekend) if the coach left it on the table is rather off-key!
At the End of the Day that was the worst interview from I PM I have heard since they did one on Muldoon pissed in 1984
The situation we have in relation to the Colmar Brunton poll shows the following (which is of high note):
12% said they are more likely to vote in this years election (so we could see an increased voter turn out from the predicted 74%)
4% said the Hager revelations would be giving National a more positive outlook
9% said the Hager revelations would give National a more negative outlook
Now an increased voter turnout is more likely to hurt National and benefit the Centre Left in any means. But a net 5% negative swing against National (especially if this translates out on election day) is fatal to the Party wanting its third term. I have theorised that even a negative 2% swing against National (so minus the revelations) would be harmful especially if the Conservatives get around 4% and not into Parliament (so that 4% is a wasted vote that could have gone to National).
It is yet to be seen if the negative 2% or 5% swing will happen, or whether voter turn out gets above the predicted 74%.
Now then in light of the Hager revelations and the Prime Minister’s double shocker today the question is can National redeem itself in the eyes of the electorate? The answer is technically yes but some stuff will need to be done including some blood-letting.
Before I go on these are my own thoughts and opinions
Road and Train to redemption
Demote Judith Collins to the back bench if National wins a third term and “retire her” at the 2017 elections. Now this is going to cause a spat and some serious bloodletting in National between the Tea Party faction and the combined Liberal and Conservative factions. However, it should be short, sharp and fast with long damage negligible to the Party in the long-term (post 2017). Once the Tea Party faction has been “retired” from the Party the Liberal and traditional Conservative factions will band together with mops, and buckets full of water and chlorine bleach. to clean up the mess. Sure it will take three years but nothing of great benefit was achieved overnight.
Have the candidates, incumbent MP’s, the Young Nats and Steven Joyce continue running the lines as they are now (whether you agree with them or not). There is a reason behind this I shall explain in a moment
Tell Bill English to open the cheque book and spread some pork around. Everyone loves a bit of pork and National is going to need just a little bit of the wonder stuff to lend some assistance. Now nothing too fancy with the pork and I see National have been busy with the pork spreading in the last few hours as I write this post. It is the pork I will be referring to.
The Urban Cycleways announcement is a nice piece of “pork.” Not as bold as The Greens but remember National are trying to be touted as ‘Fiscal Conservatives’ here
AMETI Stage II (the Bus way from Panmure Interchange (where Stage 1 is) to Pakuranga Town Centre got a $29m boost from NZTA and Auckland Transport to advance design concepts for the bus way. Now I was talking on Twitter today about AMETI Stages One and Two stalling and National needing to give it a tickle. Well National just did with Stage II
Continue to play up the significance of the Southern Motorway upgrade which is well received in Southern Auckland. The BCR alone was going above 4 (think it was 6.3 from memory) so it is deemed a worthy investment on the BCR side alone. Now I know I have sent an email on the bus lanes for the Takanini Interchange but for the moment this is about National not me
DO NOT fast track the City Rail Link any earlier than 2017. Council has not got itself sorted (recent blog posts picked that up) and the recent research paper commissioned by the Ministry of Transport (that I am covering in a series) also raises some issues with the Auckland Plan (which influences the CRL). From my own analysis (as a Geographer) I would review the Auckland Plan with a fine tooth comb before advancing the City Rail Link around the 2017/18 date. However, if National wants to play the Fiscal Muppetry card and bring the CRL forward to immediate then they might as well do the full works and build both the North Shore Line and Airport Line at the same time.
Upgrade a rail line whether it be the North Auckland Line to Northland or the East Main Trunk Line from Port of Tauranga to Hamilton. Quick win here and will keep businesses and electorates happy
Find a better Media Trainer for the PM NOW
C&R need a full gut out and rebuilt if it either wants to contest Auckland Council elections properly again (most likely 2019 at this rate). The Hager revelations are too damaging on Guilty by Association charges at the minimum.
Most of all stay on message
So the question is why the above especially in relation to bullet points two and three?
First of all bullet point two is for keeping Party Members and traditional voters from swinging. Remember we have a net 5% negative swing potential already and we don’t need traditional supporters or Party Members going for a swing because they are seriously pissed off with this entire affair (and believe me they are pissed off). So what Joyce and co are doing is soothing the traditionalists which is needed for if they bail well yeah we don’t need a repeat of Labour’s factionalisation.
Bullet point three is about the Pork. At the end of the day we all like the Pork when sprinkled our way. Now overdoing the pork will blow out of the water National’s fiscal conservative mantra that Bill English has nurtured (whether it be reality or perception). Overdoing the pork would also seem overtly cynical in vote-buying. But just a wee bit of pork there and there (the $212m regional roads package was an example of NOT HOW to do the pork) Â would keep the traditional voters happy as well as the swinging voters as well. It would go some distance in negating that 5% negative swing that is threatening at the moment.
Now this is not a comprehensive list and most likely that I have mentioned it someone in the opposition would negate it đ
But at the end of the day National does not need another performance like it received this morning from the PM. Performances it does need to receive were like universal reception on the Urban Cycleways policy announcement. Sure not as far as some would like but most were pretty happy that it is something (of worth).
Thoughts and comments are welcome. Trolls are not.
Anything over 67% means a super-majority in either supporting or showing disapproval against a particular motion or project. In this instance looking at the presser I see 68% (so a Super Majority) are in favour of the Bayswater Marina project which has attracted the usual North Shore NIMBYism for the usual North Shore NIMBYism crowd.
From Scoop
Overwhelming Support for Bayswater Marina Village
A new survey by Colmar Brunton shows nearly 70 per cent of local residents want the proposed Bayswater Marina Village.
Sunday 27 July 2014, 10:30am
As well as terraced houses and low-level apartments, the Marina Village will include two public parks on the waterâs edge with childrenâs playgrounds, cafes, retail and upgraded boating facilities and a new home for the Takapuna Grammar Rowing Club.
âWe have had extensive consultation with the local communities around the Bayswater area and this new survey showing 68 per cent of residents in favour of the proposed Bayswater Marina Village is very encouraging,â said Marina owner Simon Herbert.
The key findings from the survey were:
1) Overall 70% of residents were aware of the proposed Bayswater Marina Village before the survey
2)The majority of residents were in favour of the following aspects of the development; improved access to the water (93%), public parks and playground (90%), and the new facilities and home for Takapuna Rowing Club (86%).
3)Overall, 68% of residents were in favour of the proposed Bayswater Marina Village.
âWeâve engaged positively with the local community and they told us that improved public access to the water was a high priority for the marine village. This will be achieved by the inclusion of board walks, concrete steps to the water and a north facing white sand beach,â said Mr Herbert.
âThe village itself is designed to align itself with a marine environment and will include terraced housing and apartments using building materials such as timber board and batten, weatherboards and shingles.â
âWhile Bayswater Marina Village locals will be well serviced by public transport with an emphasis on using existing ferry and bus services, it will also offer visitors and tourists a new and exciting destination to travel to on Aucklandâs harbour.â
—-
Background to the Poll
Colmar Brunton conducted a survey on behalf of Bayswater Marina Holdings Ltd to find out whether residents were in favour or, or against the proposed Bayswater Marina Village.
A total of n=322 telephone and online interviews were conducted with residents of Bayswater and surrounding suburbs of Belmont, Narrow Neck and Hauraki to assess the appeal of the development.
The data has been weighted to reflect the demographic profile of residents from the area bases on 2013 Census statistics.
The following explanation of Bayswater Marina Village was provided to all respondents:
Todayâs survey is about the proposed Bayswater Marina Village in your area.
The proposed Bayswater Marina Village will be a mixed use residential and retail village based around the ferry terminal. It will be built using 85% of the land for open space and will include two public parks on the waterâs edge with childrenâs playgrounds, cafes, retail and an upgraded boating facility and new home for the Takapuna Grammar Rowing Club.
Improved public access to the water is a high priority for the marine village and will be achieved by including board walks, concrete steps to the water and a north facing white sand beach.
The village will also include terraced housing and apartments. Each terrace will have three levels with garaging underneath and a pitched roof. The design will be suitable to the local environment and use building materials such as timber board and batten, weatherboards and shingles in keeping with a marine environment.
The Bayswater Marina Village will be well serviced by public transport with an emphasis on using the existing ferry and bus services.
Three questions were asked:
1. Before today, were you aware of the proposed Bayswater Marina Village that has been planned?
Yes = 70%, No = 27%, Not sure/Donât know = 3%
2. And are you in favour of against the following aspects of the proposed Bayswater marina Village?
– Improved access to the water; In favour of = 93%, Against = 7%
– The two public parks & childrenâs playground; In favour of = 90%, Against 10%
– The new facilities and home for the Takapuna Grammar Rowing Club; In favour of = 86%, Against = 14%
3. Are you in favour of or against the Bayswater Marina Village overall?
– In favour of = 68%, Against 32%
Providing the urban design aspects can be done well the project should give boost to an area which is either bare ground or surface parking.
No doubt we shall hear from the Gillon clan who reside on the North Shore with their NIMBY reaction to the poll. And it seems I didn’t have to wait particularly long as this came up:
While not from the Gillon’s you can see the resentment against the project there. Now Colmar Brunton are one of our big research and polling companies and a respected one at that with them carrying out the One News political polling. I am sceptical they would have conducted a poll that would have overt bias, inaccuracies and misrepresentations as such claimed by the person quoted in the said article. That said it will be see how the complaint is dealt with.
I might go follow-up with North Shore Ward Councillors Wood and Darby to see their views and thoughts on the Marina project.
Update: Whale Oil also picks up on the issue
An extract
NORTH SHORE LOCAL POLITICIANS IN FOR EAR BASHING
by Cameron Slater on August 11, 2014 at 1:30pm
Via the Tipline
All is not well for a few of Aucklandâs local body politicians. The team at WOBH has been hearing rumours from concerned parents increasingly frustrated by busy-bodies like ex-Alliance MP Grant Gillon and holier than thou Chris Darby.
Seems the parents and teachers of boys and girls at the Takapuna Grammar School Rowing are getting all fired up that certain NIMBYS are preventing the kids from getting a new rowing club.
The rowing club is currently housed in a building owned by Auckland Council. The problem they have is that itâs a building Auckland Transport is planning to bulldoze for a carpark for its new ferry building at Bayswater.
So the kids at the rowing club need a new home. Auckland Council actually has a bit of land that could be used nearby, but they (the kids/parents) will have to pony up with a truckload of cash to build a new building/clubroom costing hundreds of thousands.
Part of the recent raft of changes brought through in the latest Local Government Act Amendments
From Scoop
Development Contributions Commissioners appointed
8 August 2014
Associate Local Government Minister Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga today announced a further step in the Governmentâs drive to reduce the cost of building new homes with the appointment of 26 commissioners to the Register of Development Contributions Commissioners.
âThese commissioners will serve as a panel to ensure transparency and accountability in the charging of development contributions,â says Mr Lotu-Iiga.
âWe are committed to making sure development contributions do not unnecessarily impact housing affordability.â
The appointments follow the passing of the Local Government Act 2002 Amendment Act (No 3) 2014.
âThe Act which comes into force today includes improvements to the development contributions regime, making them fairer and more transparent. This is part of a suite of housing affordability initiatives like increasing land supply, establishing Special Housing Areas, removing tariffs on building materials and reforming the Resource Management Act 1991,â says Mr Lotu-Iiga.
He adds that the development contributions commissioners will make sure that councils can only charge developers for infrastructure related directly to their developments. He says the commissioners will manage the new objections process as the law now allows developers to object to a councilâs imposition of a development contribution charge.
âI am pleased with the calibre of people who put their names forward for the register. I am confident that the appointed commissioners possess the relevant knowledge, skills and expertise to serve on the panel.â
All the commissioners are appointed for a three-year term.
Stephen Abley is currently the Managing Director of Abley Transportation Consultants. Stephen has extensive engineering experience and has assisted two councils with work that later informed their development contributions policies.
Mark Apeldoorn is currently a Director of the Traffic Design Group. Mark has extensive experience in civil engineering with particular expertise in traffic engineering design, urban design in the transport environment, city centre revitalisation and transport supply and demand management.
Helen Atkins is currently an environmental and local government law specialist at the Atkins Holm Majurey law firm. Helen is a RMA commissioner, a current board member of the Environmental Risk Management Authority and has previously chaired the Wellington Branch of the New Zealand Planning Institute.
Simon Berry is one of the founding partners of Berry Simons law firm and specialises in environmental law. He has been in practice as a specialist environmental law barrister and prior to that spent many years as a partner in two law firms.
Alan Bickers is a professional engineer and former Chief Executive of Tauranga City Council. Allan is a Distinguished Fellow of the Institution of Professional Engineers New Zealand and a RMA commissioner.
Fraser Campbell is the current Director of Campbell Consulting Limited, an engineering consultancy, and a RMA commissioner. Prior to this, Fraser worked at Palmerston North District Council in several managerial roles.
Andy Carr is currently the Director of Carriageway Consulting, a transport engineering consultancy, as well as a RMA commissioner. He is a member of the National Committee of the Resource Management Law Association and is the immediate past Chair of the Canterbury branch of the Association.
Paul Cooney is the Partner of law firm CooneyLeesMorgan and acts as Senior Legal Advisor to several territorial authorities. Paul is a RMA commissioner and prior to this was a member of the Casino Control Authority.
Alan Dormer is lawyer at Shortland Chambers law firm and specialises in public, environmental and local government law. He also teaches the âMaking Good Decisionsâ programme for RMA commissioners.
Tauiliili Fatu Fuatavai is currently the Director and Owner of the Airport Garden Inn Hotel, Trident Tavern and Gordys Bar. He is a commercial and residential property investor. Prior to this he was a Site Engineer working on various high rise buildings and civil engineering projects.
Harriet Fraser is currently an Independent Consultant at Harriet Fraser Traffic Engineering and Transportation Planning. Harriet has extensive engineering experience with particular focus on traffic engineering and transportation planning.
Brian Hasell is an Engineer, and the current Director of Hasell Consulting Limited. He has also been the Wellington Regional Manager for Transit New Zealand and the Chief Executive of Ashburton District Council.
David Hutchison is currently the Chief Civil Engineer at Downer New Zealand, a role he has held since 2008. He has extensive experience as a civil engineer.
Susan Jackson is experienced both as a civil engineer and local government councillor. She is currently a RMA commissioner, self-employed and in her final year of study for a Graduate Diploma in Business (Dispute Resolution).
Steven Kerr is currently a Principal Planner at Montgomery Watson Harza New Zealand. He also has planning experience from his time at CPG/Spiire, Telecom New Zealand Limited, BECA and at several New Zealand territorial authorities, including Upper Hutt City Council, Taupo District Council and Tauranga City Council. Steven is also a RMA commissioner.
David McLernon is currently a Director, Project Manager and Project Director at Octa Associates Limited. David has specialist knowledge in engineering.
Philip Milne is a lawyer with many yearsâ experience in the local government and environmental law field. He is currently a practicing Barrister at Waterfront Chambers in Wellington.
Graham Nielsen is currently a Management Consultant for SPM Consultants Limited. Graham has extensive experience in mechanical engineering, and has local government knowledge from years working for various councils in the Auckland region.
Pamela Peters is currently a consultant based in Auckland and a RMA commissioner. Pamela was the Mayor of Whangarei from 2004 to 2007 and was Deputy Mayor and a councillor for nine years prior to that.
Gary Rae is currently a planning consultant based in Nelson and a RMA commissioner. Gary Rae was a regional planner for Transit New Zealand, Principal Planner at Works Consultancy Services, and prior to that an Area Planner at Christchurch City Council.
Cindy Robinson specialises in law and is currently the Director of a resource management consultancy firm. She has experience as a board member and chairman of Arts Centre of Christchurch Trust and was previously a partner at Duncan Cotterill law firm.
Gregory Shaw is currently the Chief Executive of both Dalian Blue Sea Marina Design Company Limited and the Trade China Group Limited. Gregory also owns an engineering consultancy called The Consulting Group 2006 Limited. Gregory has specialist knowledge in engineering, both civil and structural, and also has experience in negotiation and problem solving.
Craig Shearer has specialist knowledge in planning, and local government knowledge from experience working for regional councils, including many years at Auckland Regional Council. He is currently the owner of Shearer Consulting Limited, providing input in to resource management processes.
Darrell Statham is currently the Principal of Statham Consulting Limited. He has extensive civil engineering experience and specialises in civil design, economic evaluation and project management.
Mark St Clair is a Principal and Co-Director of Hill Young Cooper Limited, a strategic resource management and environmental policy and planning consultancy. He is also a RMA commissioner, a member of the New Zealand Planning Institute and the Resource Management Law Association. Mark has worked previously as both a Senior Planning Consultant at GHD and has held policy and planning positions at Manukau City and Hutt City Councils.
Gina Sweetman is a RMA commissioner. She is also an experienced planner, currently working at Sweetman Planning Services. She is familiar with local government and MÄori issues through work as a RMA commissioner, and planning and policy advisor for both the public and private sector.
Yesterday Transport Blog via a Local Government Official Information and Meetings Act (LGOIMA) request posted on plans to improve both the east-west links in the Auckland City Centre as well as (as a result) vitality of the City Centre.
Transport Blog have done their own commentary on this and I’ll leave the commentary at that (see: The City East West Transport Study )
What have done is attach the document as an embed so that you can read the PDF which is at 44MB in size without busting your bandwidth (via downloading) – especially if on a tablet or mobile device.
The City Centre East West Link Report – courtesy of Transport Blog
At 274 pages long I have not read it fully yet myself but from what I have seen it is certainly interesting and doable over time. The catch is will we have political will power to do it…
Pretty Reasonable. To the point I can not simply fault it including first look at their own alternative Government Policy Statement and subsequent Budget arrangements to fund the policy. … Continue reading The Greens Mass Transit Policy Announcement
My Alternative CRL Operations Plan after Auckland Transport Dropped Newton Station In my City Rail Link Operations MK2 I had noted Auckland Transport altering the City Rail Link insofar as dropping Newton … Continue reading City Rail Link Operations MK2 Full Version
Talking Southern Auckland 