Long Term Plan and Auckland Transport Alignment Project out of date
As I went cruising through the Annual Plan documentation (see: Council to Vote on Annual Plan (Council Budget) Thursday) I caught this from the Mayoral Proposal:
Population growth has continued to outstrip projections included in both the last LTP and ATAP. This has contributed to additional pressure on the transport network through added congestion, significant pressure on housing and, for council, on the supply of infrastructure to support new housing development. Work on the Future Urban Land Supply Strategy has also identified close to $20 billion of investment (including state highways) required over the next 30 years just to service greenfield development.
Source: Finance and Performance June 17 population growth – Page 9, Paragraph 35
The embedded version:
Compounded with the Transit issue below and Auckland runs into a problem larger than previously thought:
Mass transit network investigations
Auckland continues to face serious transport access issues involving the city centre, the inner suburbs, the Airport and the south. Auckland Transport is working to determine an effective public transport solution to this issue. Investigation and design of potential mass transit solutions continues and requires $10 million of increased operating budget in 2017/2018.
Source Finance and Performance June 17 population growth – Page 7, Paragraph 25
The problem presents itself because the Long Term Plan 2015-2025, and the Auckland Transport Alignment Program (ATAP) (that only went live late last year) are based on the population growth projects set by the Auckland Plan (operative 2012). Back then the Auckland Plan had set a High Population Growth projection to which the LTP, ATAP and later the Unitary Plan all followed. While the Auckland Plan is under refresh that refresh version does not go live until next year and will only inform the 2018 Long Term Plan on wards.
The pressures mentioned above especially with the City Centre, inner suburbs, Airport, and particularly the South are issues I have long flagged and even presented to the Auckland Council Planning Committee on previously. However, the comments made in the Mayoral Proposal to the Annual Plan are some of the most recent cases of evidence on how serious those issues are particularly.
The ATAP was meant to be an agreement on rolling out transport programs by Government and Council to match up with Auckland’s growth but it seems it now falls short triggering a full refresh itself so soon.
The question is how do we plan for this and are there solutions?
Yes there are?
The Southern Auckland Development and Its Pressures Omnibus that I have just updated with new posts maps out from: the situation at hand, options to get the ball rolling, longer term options, and how to finance it all properly without sending anyone broke.
It is all there what it needs is political will power from our main advocates – the Governing Body of Auckland Council.
The Southern Auckland Development and Its Pressures Omnibus:
The crux of the Omnibus:
- 65,000 new homes needed within five years, 25,000 within Southern Auckland Future Urban Zone and Transform Manukau areas
- 55,000 new residents can be housed in Southern Auckland Future Urban Zone
- New Southern Interceptor, transit links, and Airport Southern Line required to service new developments
- 35,000 new jobs anticipated mainly in heavy industrial complexes and Manukau City Centre
- $4.25b initially needed to get the 65,000 homes off the ground and backed with infrastructure
Note the 65,000 new homes, capacity for 35,000 jobs and the $4.25b infrastructure cost provides capacity for 195,000 new residents.
With our population trajectories well above event the Auckland Plan projects it falls back to the Governing Body of Auckland Council to try and get ahead of this with laying down the foundations for urban development to support this rapid growth.
The ideas are all there, what we need is execution: